French Open 1st Round matches

So, this was the time last year that I really started to build some major profit with my sports betting. The question is, can I do that again?

I am kicking it off with the French Open and some reasonably focused statistical analysis. For those of you who are interested in sports statistics this could make interesting reading.

All of my analysis on men's tennis is based on the previous four years tournaments, often just from the round of matches to which it refers.

I'll start with posting some information on the set patterns within the French Open.

Where F = Favourite and NF = Non-Favourite, these are the number of times a particular set pattern has occured in the first round of this tournament.

114 F-F-F
23 NF-F-F-F
19 NF-NF-NF
17 F-F-NF-F
15 F-NF-F-F
7 F-NF-NF-NF
7 F-F-NF-NF-F
5 NF-NF-F-NF
4 NF-F-NF-NF
4 NF-F-F-NF-F
4 F-NF-NF-F-NF
4 F-NF-F-NF-NF
4 F-F-NF-NF-NF
4 NF-F-NF-F-NF
3 F-NF-NF-F-F
3 NF-F-F-NF-NF
2 F-NF-F-NF-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-NF
1 NF-F-NF-F-F

114 3-0 F
55 3-1 F
19 3-2 F
19 3-0 NF
16 3-1 NF
21 3-2 NF

Obviously, across the board you can't apply this to particular matches, but it is worth noting these patterns as you can potentially calculate the probability of a player winning the match from a particular stage, say two sets ahead when they started the match as favourite. It is interesting to see that while most bookies will offer you bigger odds on 3-2 to the non-favourite than 3-1, the reverse should be offered based on the statistics.

To get more analytical, it is necessary to compare set results to particular match odds. Using the odds from Bet365, here are the numbers in terms of set scores, alongside the odds for the favourite. The order of these numbers is 3-0F/3-1F/3-2F/3-0NF/3-1NF/3-2NF/Ret.

1.01 9/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.02 6/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.03 4/1/2/0/0/0/0
1.04 1/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.05 0/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.06 7/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.07 4/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.08 5/2/0/0/0/0/0
1.10 1/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.11 7/2/0/0/0/0/1
1.12 4/1/1/0/1/1/0
1.14 6/2/2/0/0/0/0
1.16 1/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.19 0/1/0/0/0/1/0
1.20 1/1/1/0/0/1/0
1.22 6/2/1/0/1/1/0
1.25 5/1/0/1/0/1/0
1.28 7/1/0/2/0/1/1
1.30 1/3/0/0/0/0/0
1.33 3/2/1/1/1/1/0
1.36 5/3/1/0/3/1/1
1.38 1/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.39 1/1/1/1/0/0/1
1.40 0/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.44 7/1/1/1/2/2/0
1.50 3/3/0/1/1/0/1
1.53 3/2/0/1/1/1/0
1.57 5/5/2/1/0/1/1
1.61 1/2/0/2/1/1/1
1.66 4/2/1/2/0/2/0
1.72 4/3/2/0/1/3/0
1.8+ 0/5/1/4/4/1/3

For this period of matches, there have been no favourites at less than 1.12 that have lost. Three of them have retired. A favourite at 1.01 should be 1.10 or less to win the set in straight sets. A favourite at 1.8+ hasn't won the set 3-0, and in fact, has lost more times than has won. So these are statistics I shall use when betting.

No player ranked greater than 400 has won in this period. There are two of them in the first round of this tournament and they should be avoided.

One of the worlds top 10 loses almost every year in the first round.

Here are my predictions for the first batch of matches - and the reasons for them.

Lleyton HEWITT v Ivo KARLOVIC Lay Karlovic 3-2 @ 7.0
Hewitt is at 1.5s. The stats match the odds for the chances of him winning, and whilst he is not great on clay courts, his record recently is 20-8 whereas the improved Karlovic has lost more than he has won. The Croatian does have a good record against Hewitt, 2-0 in four years. Hewitt has a good return of serve but his own serve will give Karlovic chances. This game is based almost entirely on Karlovic's serve, but it won't go to 3-2 and the stats don't support that either.

Florent SERRA (FRA) v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco WIN @ 1.1
Potentially risky for the Spaniard, but Serra, with a 49% record on clay courts, isn't the most likely French winner in this round. Verdasco's form and multi-surface ability will see him win this match easily. I'm not sure it will be 3-0, but he shouldn't have too many problems.

Marcel GRANOLLERS v Josselin OUANNA (FRA) No bet
Ouanna on the other hand, is a potentially dangerous player against another Spaniard who has less form and definitely is superior on hard courts. Ouanna is reasonably ranked to pull a surprise victory here and with Granollers at 1.57, the bookies are hesitant about his chances. My recommendation would not the Ouanna win however. He has lost all of his matches on clay on the ATP tour in the last four years. No bet.

Denis GREMELMAYR v Andrey GOLUBEV Gremelmayr WIN @ 2.1
Here is a match in which the favourite is incorrectly priced. Golubev hasn't played a competitive match on clay at this level, Gremelmayr has a 12-10 record. There are two potential bets here, you could lay the 3-0 Gremelmayr, risky, but most likely successful. But I would opt for the win for Gremelmayr @ 2.1.

Dudi SELA v Jean Rene LISNARD (FRA) Sela WIN @ 2.26
Jean Rene Lisnard is French but that doesn't make him a world beater. Dudi Sela has enough ability to see of this French pretender. In fact, with Lisnard at 1.83, I think the only option in this match is a Sela win @ 2.26.

Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) v Marat SAFIN Safin WIN @ 1.23
Marat Safin has a reasonable record on clay and against this wild-card he should win. May not be the easiest win, but I would bet on him. Safin to win at 1.22.

Jan HERNYCH v Marin CILIC Cilic WIN @ 1.2
Neither of these players has a great clay court record, but Cilic is the form player and that is reflected in his odds. I'm not sure this will be straight sets, but the recommendation is simple. Cilic to win @ 1.2.

Yen-Hsun LU v Mathieu MONTCOURT (FRA) Lay 3-2 LU @ 9.0
An almost impossible match to call. Lu, who has injury problems, the better player against an opponent who elsewhere he may beat easily. The only option here is to use the stats cautiously with a minor lay of 3-2 Lu.

Peter POLANSKY v Philipp PETZSCHNER Lay Polansky 3-0 @ 5.1
Odds on this match have switched. Petzschner was the bookie's favourite. Petzschner is a player who pulls off wins when you least expect him to. Today he has a chance to win against a player he should beat easily and I doubt it will be that simple. In fact he may lose. This is a lay of Polansky 3-0 at 5.1.

Wayne ODESNIK v Gilles SIMON (FRA) Simon WIN @ 1.2
Yet another 1.2 shot, but this time for a French player who is in form. Bookies continue to be undecided on Simon, and on this occasion perhaps correctly. Odesnik has a 10-4 record on clay in four years, albeit mostly on American clay. He is 3-2 on European clay courts however. Simon has a 50-30 record on clay, so added to his nationality, this is likely to stand him in a good position to win the match. An obvious bet. Simon to win @ 1.2.

Radek STEPANEK v Gaston GAUDIO No bet
With Gaudio's record at this tournament, Stepanek becomes a doubt, particularly at this odds. But Gaudio's record has recently been atrocious and Stepanek should surely be able to defeat him. Most factors are in Stepanek's favour, but I don't like the odds here. I would have placed him at 1.3s at least. This is a no bet.

Nicolas ALMAGRO v Agustin CALLERI Lay Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0
Almagro is apparently the best clay courter in the world other than Nadal. I heard that before on a news channel. Personally I would have chosen Federer but maybe his stats would stand up to that. 94-51. Federer, without checking is something like 69-13. So maybe that news channel need to do some more research. Almagro should outplay Calleri here, the Argentine has injury concerns and I can't see anything but a win for Almagro. 3-0 or 3-1 but certainly not 3-2 and so a lay of Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0 is the bet.

Andy MURRAY v Juan Ignacio CHELA Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0
Not the ideal match for Murray against someone with ability on clay. Murray is potentially the biggest risk of the world's top ten in this round. 1.13 puts him just outside the safe zone and so the only option is to look at the set betting. Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0.

Ernests GULBIS v Sam QUERREY Querrey WIN @2.1
Sam Querrey has been showing form on clay, which is unusual for a power-serving American. Gulbis has been in atrocious form, and while he may be defending ranking points from a successful tournament last year, his odds at 1.83 are reasonable. I am not sure who will win this, but as with most 1.8+ favourites, I will select their opponent. Querrey to win @ 2.1.

Frederico GIL v David FERRER Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0
Strangely, Ferrer is not in the safe zone either. The bookies are showing signs that they rate Gil quite highly. He's fine, but he's not a world beater and I think Ferrer will win. But as with other players at these odds he's outside of the safe zone and can't be risked. So, the set betting again. Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0.

Daniel BRANDS v Robert KENDRICK Lay Brands 3-2 @ 7.0
Not really the easiest match to predict based on player knowledge. Kendrick of course is reliant on his serve and I think that will fail him on this occasion. Brands is correctly priced at 1.5, the odds give nothing away compared to the stats, so my bet is a lay of Brands 3-2 @ 7.0.

Note these are my recommended bets. I generally bet in-play using stats, so I will post all of my betting results on here for each day to show the profit I have made.