Wednesday 27 May 2009

French Open 2nd Round, Wednesday

This round is never the easiest to predict at the French Open. For a start, the 'safe zone', odds at which a player is almost certain to win, is, based on odds, eliminated, or at least reduced significantly. More focused investigation however, reveals that in the last four years, French players have been been the major cause of such an effect. There are no French players against the lower priced favourites in this round and as such this suggests caution. Set betting is the topic of the day, so with my predictions today, there are many set betting options to avoid 'no bets'. Because of the set betting plans I am using, this could be one of those days in which I lose more bets than I win but nevertheless, for the second round overall I make a profit. The good thing about this round is that there is a greater chance of matches being completed. Additionally, lay bets at less than 2.0 are not for an equal stake, they are for an equal profit, although you could obviously use an equal stake if preferred.

Andy MURRAY v Potito STARACE Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.40
Potito Starace is underrated here, and his clay results are very good. Andy Murray allegedly dislikes early matches. While I can see trouble in this match for Murray, I cannot envisage an easy win for Starace or Murray and a lay of Murray 3-0 seems the choice.

Nicolas ALMAGRO v Ernests GULBIS No bet
Gulbis can be a tough player on clay, as proven by this tournament last year. However, his form is out and Almagro is a consistently good clay court player. I am quite surprised by the high odds on Almagro, but Gulbis is a tough competitor and with these odds, there is no probable result. No bet.

Fernando GONZALEZ v Rui MACHADO Gonzalez WIN @ 1.03
I cannot suggest a Machado win, however impressive his first round may have been. Gonzalez is reasonably good on clay, and his experience should see him win this match easily. Gonzalez to win.

Victor HANESCU v Mikhail YOUZHNY Lay Youzhny 3-2 @ 7.0
Mikhail Youzhny is on the borderline of some odd stats. 1.4s have a poor record at Roland Garros whereas 1.5s have a good record. As such, set betting would seem the option. Here I am opting for a lay of Youzhny 3-2.

Robin SODERLING v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Soderling's price is too risky for a bet on this, he should win but with his injury problems and Istomin's confidence, this is a no bet.

Janko TIPSAREVIC v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Tipsarevic at 1.6 is surely based on form. Lopez can play on clay. He rarely wins easily however, however, and at these prices there are no obvious bets. No bet.

Robert KENDRICK v Gilles SIMON Simon WIN @ 1.13
While Kendrick may have slogged his way through his first match, so did Simon, however, a lot will depend on Kendrick's serve here. I think Simon has enough to his return of serve to damage Kendrick's game and Kendrick is lacking in his return of serve. Gilles Simon will be bolstered by his first round victory and the fact he is playing in France. Simon to win.

Philipp PETZSCHNER v Fernando VERDASCO Lay Verdasco 3-0 @ 1.28
Petzschner is one of those players who could spring a surprise against a lot of players at lower odds, but I can't see that against an in-form Verdasco. Set betting again with a lay of Verdasco 3-0.

Dudi SELA v Marin CILIC Lay Cilic 3-2 @ 14.5
I think Cilic is at risk here, even though his form has been good his year. His odds are too minor to make him an outright win bet and yet a bet on his opponent would seem risky. Lay Cilic 3-2 could be an ideal choice.

Nicolas KIEFER v David FERRER Lay Ferrer 3-0 @ 1.74
Yet another player who potentially faces an embarassing knockout from the competition, Ferrer will have to ensure that Kiefer's game is restricted. I think he can do that easily however. Ferrer's return of serve is top notch and while he may have the odd wobble, considering his previous match, I can't see that today. But because of Kiefer's ability and the stats not providing any other option, this is a lay of Ferrer 3-0.

Radek STEPANEK v Mathieu MONTCOURT Lay Montcourt 3-0 @ 27.0
Here is a match in which I am seriously tempted to back the non-favourite. He is exactly the type of opponent that Stepanek's game could struggle against, added to fact that he is French. But players in the range of 1.15-1.19 have a 12-0 undefeated record in this round of French Open in four years and that has to suggest a Stepanek win. As such, I have to resort to a lay of 3-0 to Montcourt.

Nicolas MASSU v Stanislas WAWRINKA Lay Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.9
I am not convinced by Wawrinka's game having seen his round match, but Massu doesn't seem to win very easily. Yet the stats suggest that Wawrinka is at risk. Lay Wawrinka 3-0.

Josselin OUANNA v Marat SAFIN Lay Ouanna 3-0 @ 15.0
I am not sure at all about Ouanna's ability to destroy Safin here. Safin was powering through his previous match and seems to be confident of a good tournament. He'll have to avoid one of his tantrums in this encounter however, if he doesn't want to risk the wrath of the French crowd, and Ouanna will be up for this match. I can't see an easy win for Safin and I think Ouanna will not win 3-0. Lay of that score for Ouanna.

Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Diego JUNQUEIRA Davydenko WIN @ 1.05
Junqueira was impressive in his first match but he will surely be up against a tougher opponent in Davydenko today. The Russian has the opportunity of an easy win here, and I think he'll take it.

Andrey GOLUBEV v Lleyton HEWITT Lay Golubev 3-0 @ 22.0
Touted as a potential surprise defeat, I don't really think it would be that much of a surprise if Hewitt was to be knocked out in this match. Beating Karlovic will have given him a boost of confidence and as favourites of odds around 1.2 have a record which suggests a Hewitt win, the match odds seem avoidable. I am laying Golubev 3-0 here.

Rafael NADAL v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Nadal 3-0 @ 1.1
Nadal at is the strongest favourite in this round and as such I can see nothing but another 3-0 win for him. Players at the same odds have a 10-0 record in winning in straight sets and 1.1 for set betting is a reasonably good price.