The French Open 4th round is an easy round to bet on. There are very few victories for the non-favourites (1 in every 4.5 matches) and when they do win it isn't usually easy. In fact, in four years, no non-favourites have won 3-0.
I generally use odds from 5 different bookmakers - and have done since the 3rd round of the tournament this year. I take the odds from those, divide by 5 and give accurate odds. Using betting exchanges you would expect those odds to increase a little, less so for the strong favourites.
Here are my bets for the 4th round.
Rafael NADAL v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31
I can see potential in Soderling's game to beat most players, but not Rafael Nadal on clay. There is one winner here and it will be an easy win for the Spaniard.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Victor HANESCU Gonzalez to win 3-0 @ 2.10
Gonzalez has more than enough energy and skill to defeat Hanescu easily. I think Hanescu has some form going into this, but it won't be nearly enough to prevent an easy win for Gonzalez.
Andy MURRAY v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10
Murray has the game to defeat Cilic easily, and while I may have decided he won't win 3-0 in previous matches this is probably going to be one of those.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco to win 3-0 @ 4.0
Very good odds on the easy win for Verdasco and his form is improving throughout the tournament. Davydenko has a chance here, but I think that at this price the 3-0 to Verdasco is not worth avoiding.
There is another plan available for all of these matches and it is this -
Back all non-favourites at match odds of 1.11+ to win 3-2. This would be an ideal counterbet for the 3-0 predictions above. You'll get some great odds e.g. Hanescu @ 19.5. And this is why - of the non-favourites that have won in this round in four years (and there have been just 6 of them in completed matches) four of them have won 3-2.
Sunday 31 May 2009
Saturday bet results
Cricket was an easy bet yesterday.
WON Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN in-play @ 1.26 (+2.6)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = +2.6
No profit for the tennis on Saturday, but continuing in profit for the tournament.
WON Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6 (+3.85)
LOST Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0 (-10)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7 (-10)
LOST Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6 (-10)
WON Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92 (+5.21)
WON MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -29.14
WON Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN in-play @ 1.26 (+2.6)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = +2.6
No profit for the tennis on Saturday, but continuing in profit for the tournament.
WON Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6 (+3.85)
LOST Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0 (-10)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7 (-10)
LOST Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6 (-10)
WON Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92 (+5.21)
WON MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -29.14
Saturday 30 May 2009
T20 Cricket, Saturday
The stats show an effective bet on the cricket this evening.
Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN @ 1.26 in-play
Glamorgan 129/8 off 20 overs.
At these odds, considering the stats show that in English T20 cricket, there is a 1 in 12 chance of a score of 129 being beaten, Warwickshire to win is a superb bet.
Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN @ 1.26 in-play
Glamorgan 129/8 off 20 overs.
At these odds, considering the stats show that in English T20 cricket, there is a 1 in 12 chance of a score of 129 being beaten, Warwickshire to win is a superb bet.
French Open 3rd Round matches, Saturday
Can I make a profit on Saturday?
Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6
Chardy is at odds which would suggest he has a good chance of winning this, particularly when supported by the stats, but Haas has the experience and I can't see quarter-finals full of Frenchmen either. Chardy has his toughest match yet and I suspect if he does win it won't be easy.
Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0
Roddick's poor record at Roland Garros is likely to return to hit him today. He's had reasonably easy wins so far against limited opponents. Gicquel is far from that, and is a superb price to defeat Roddick. This price cannot be bet against. Gicquel to win @ 5.0.
Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7
Maximo Gonzalez is definitely becoming a dark horse in this tournament, and indeed it is a tournament in which unheralded South American players have made the big time. Yet he is against Robredo who has won his matches easily so far, and hence this bet should be decided on with some caution. The stats suggest one or two favourites between 1.11 and 1.29 should lose in this round and none have yet. Gonzalez to win @ 4.7.
Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6
Another player whose odds are wrongly priced is Tsonga. Look at his clay court form against that of Rochus and you'll see they are almost equally matched. Rochus has beaten some great players this week and Tsonga has just edged his way through to this stage. Rochus to win.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1
Del Potro is the riskiest favourite of the day, but I shall back him to win this. He has a winning record against Andreev and is in such form that a stuttering Andreev won't have many chances against him. It may even be 3-0, but a Del Potro win is on the cards.
Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06
Djokovic is in the safe zone and Kohlschreiber will not have any chance to win this. Added to the fact that his serve is simply not good enough against a player like Djokovic, he is likely to be outrallied too. However, the warm conditions will not favour Djokovic and he may need to win quickly.
Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92
Melzer would be a potential winner of this if it wasn't for Monfil's form which going into this match has been excellent. He seems to take to this tournament reasonably easily and has done so again this year. Melzer too has played great tennis to get to this stage and I am sure he will win at least a set in this match.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08
Roger Federer shouldn't have much trouble against Mathieu here. The French player has been unconvincing in his previous matches, and Federer wasn't at his best previously either. But Federer plays himself into tournaments, and Mathieu plays himself out of them. Federer to win this easily.
Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6
Chardy is at odds which would suggest he has a good chance of winning this, particularly when supported by the stats, but Haas has the experience and I can't see quarter-finals full of Frenchmen either. Chardy has his toughest match yet and I suspect if he does win it won't be easy.
Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0
Roddick's poor record at Roland Garros is likely to return to hit him today. He's had reasonably easy wins so far against limited opponents. Gicquel is far from that, and is a superb price to defeat Roddick. This price cannot be bet against. Gicquel to win @ 5.0.
Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7
Maximo Gonzalez is definitely becoming a dark horse in this tournament, and indeed it is a tournament in which unheralded South American players have made the big time. Yet he is against Robredo who has won his matches easily so far, and hence this bet should be decided on with some caution. The stats suggest one or two favourites between 1.11 and 1.29 should lose in this round and none have yet. Gonzalez to win @ 4.7.
Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6
Another player whose odds are wrongly priced is Tsonga. Look at his clay court form against that of Rochus and you'll see they are almost equally matched. Rochus has beaten some great players this week and Tsonga has just edged his way through to this stage. Rochus to win.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1
Del Potro is the riskiest favourite of the day, but I shall back him to win this. He has a winning record against Andreev and is in such form that a stuttering Andreev won't have many chances against him. It may even be 3-0, but a Del Potro win is on the cards.
Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06
Djokovic is in the safe zone and Kohlschreiber will not have any chance to win this. Added to the fact that his serve is simply not good enough against a player like Djokovic, he is likely to be outrallied too. However, the warm conditions will not favour Djokovic and he may need to win quickly.
Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92
Melzer would be a potential winner of this if it wasn't for Monfil's form which going into this match has been excellent. He seems to take to this tournament reasonably easily and has done so again this year. Melzer too has played great tennis to get to this stage and I am sure he will win at least a set in this match.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08
Roger Federer shouldn't have much trouble against Mathieu here. The French player has been unconvincing in his previous matches, and Federer wasn't at his best previously either. But Federer plays himself into tournaments, and Mathieu plays himself out of them. Federer to win this easily.
Friday 29 May 2009
French Open 3rd Round results, Friday
Today's match results
WON Rafael NADAL v Lleyton HEWITT Nadal win @ 1.02 WON (+0.2)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Josselin OUANNA Gonzalez to win @ 1.08 (+0.8)
WON Gilles SIMON v Victor HANESCU Hanescu to win @ 3.0 (+20)
LOST Andy MURRAY v Janko TIPSAREVIC Tipsarevic to win @ 7.0 (-10)
LOST Fernando VERDASCO v Nicolas ALMAGRO Almagro to win @ 7.8 (-10)
LOST Radek STEPANEK v Marin CILIC Stepanek to win @ 2.26 (-10)
WON Robin SODERLING v David FERRER Soderling to win @ 2.94 (+19.4)
LOST Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Stanislas WAWRINKA Davydenko 3-0 @ 5.2 (-10)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = 0.40
WON Rafael NADAL v Lleyton HEWITT Nadal win @ 1.02 WON (+0.2)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Josselin OUANNA Gonzalez to win @ 1.08 (+0.8)
WON Gilles SIMON v Victor HANESCU Hanescu to win @ 3.0 (+20)
LOST Andy MURRAY v Janko TIPSAREVIC Tipsarevic to win @ 7.0 (-10)
LOST Fernando VERDASCO v Nicolas ALMAGRO Almagro to win @ 7.8 (-10)
LOST Radek STEPANEK v Marin CILIC Stepanek to win @ 2.26 (-10)
WON Robin SODERLING v David FERRER Soderling to win @ 2.94 (+19.4)
LOST Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Stanislas WAWRINKA Davydenko 3-0 @ 5.2 (-10)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = 0.40
French Open 3rd Round matches, Friday
These are the predictions for Friday's 3rd round matches. I have put a lot of detail into the analysis for this round as it is the round that I was most successful with last year. Note with any analysis of player stats mentioned in this blog it refers to a period from now back to 2005.
Rafael NADAL v Lleyton HEWITT Nadal win @ 1.02
At first glance Hewitt could seem like a player who is not a natural on clay courts, but his record is actually quite good. Additionally, he would seem to have a good record against Nadal. In fact, he does, but when you look in more detail at that record it doesn't bode well for Hewitt. His only earned victory in four years was back in 2005 in the Australian Open and even that was a gruelling 3-2. In that match Hewitt was ranked 3rd in the ATP rankings and Nadal 56th. All of their other matches since then have been with Nadal ranked 2nd, and with the exception of a Nadal retirement in a match at Queens in which Nadal was beginning to dominate, the Spaniard has a good record against Hewitt - and an unbeaten record on clay. Nadal's clay court record against Hewitt is 3-0, and although Hewitt gave Nadal a tough match last year and won a set against him in the French Open in 2006, this is not the Hewitt of those matches and it is obvious why Nadal is such a short price. He will win, and it may be in straight sets. 1.3 is a good price for the straight sets. In four years, there have been four players starting a third round match at Roland Garros at 1.02 or less. Every one of those players won 3-0. Not convincing enough though, when you consider that 2 players at 1.03 did not win by that score. This has to be a bet on the Nadal match win.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Josselin OUANNA Gonzalez to win @ 1.08
Gonzalez is not an excellent clay court player, but he does win nearly three times the number of matches he loses, and Ouanna, despite his previous exploits at this year's tournament, has met his match here. Gonzalez has the perfect game to beat Ouanna. The straight sets win is at 1.6s, a little risky with a Frenchman involved and not supported by the stats, so the match bet for Gonzalez is the choice.
Andy MURRAY v Janko TIPSAREVIC Tipsarevic to win @ 7.0
These players share their previous matches with two victories each. None of those were on clay, however, Tipsarevic has form coming into this tournament, he has more French Open attempts under his belt and the odds on him in this match, considering that, are quite attractive. Favourites between 1.1 and 1.19 in this round have a 7-3 record and I wouldn't be surprised if Tipsarevic pulls off the win here. I am opting for the win.
Fernando VERDASCO v Nicolas ALMAGRO Almagro to win @ 7.8
The odds are way too risky on Verdasco here. Yes, he's got the form but Almagro can destroy opponents on clay when he has his game going. Almagro was a quarter-finalist here last year and should not be underestimated. On Verdasco's side are the previous matches, he leads 2-0, both on clay, both straight sets wins. My theory is that if Verdasco doesn't win this in three sets, Almagro could knock him out of this tournament. The stats suggest that a good choice here would be a lay of Verdasco 3-2. But I'm on the win for the underdog.
Radek STEPANEK v Marin CILIC Stepanek to win @ 2.26
Cilic is the favourite here, but the odds should be approached with some caution. Stepanek has a previous win against Cilic on clay, in straight sets. He has a superior clay court record. And he has a reasonably good French Open record. Stepanek to win.
Gilles SIMON v Victor HANESCU Hanescu to win @ 3.0
Hanescu is another former quarter-finalist who is possibly underestimated in this match. This is either a lay of Simon 3-0 or a straight bet on Hanescu. This has the signs of a 5 set match.
Robin SODERLING v David FERRER Soderling to win @ 2.94
Soderling has the potential to beat any player, but his temperament often lets him down. It could easily do against the frustrating return of serve of David Ferrer, but the conditions today and the stats suggest Soderling has an excellent chance of a win here.
Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Stanislas WAWRINKA Davydenko 3-0 @ 5.2
Wawrinka is capable of causing the Russian problems here, but whether he will play to his strengths is another matter.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer
Will they play again in the final, or will one of the seven French players get through to challenge them?
Rafael NADAL v Lleyton HEWITT Nadal win @ 1.02
At first glance Hewitt could seem like a player who is not a natural on clay courts, but his record is actually quite good. Additionally, he would seem to have a good record against Nadal. In fact, he does, but when you look in more detail at that record it doesn't bode well for Hewitt. His only earned victory in four years was back in 2005 in the Australian Open and even that was a gruelling 3-2. In that match Hewitt was ranked 3rd in the ATP rankings and Nadal 56th. All of their other matches since then have been with Nadal ranked 2nd, and with the exception of a Nadal retirement in a match at Queens in which Nadal was beginning to dominate, the Spaniard has a good record against Hewitt - and an unbeaten record on clay. Nadal's clay court record against Hewitt is 3-0, and although Hewitt gave Nadal a tough match last year and won a set against him in the French Open in 2006, this is not the Hewitt of those matches and it is obvious why Nadal is such a short price. He will win, and it may be in straight sets. 1.3 is a good price for the straight sets. In four years, there have been four players starting a third round match at Roland Garros at 1.02 or less. Every one of those players won 3-0. Not convincing enough though, when you consider that 2 players at 1.03 did not win by that score. This has to be a bet on the Nadal match win.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Josselin OUANNA Gonzalez to win @ 1.08
Gonzalez is not an excellent clay court player, but he does win nearly three times the number of matches he loses, and Ouanna, despite his previous exploits at this year's tournament, has met his match here. Gonzalez has the perfect game to beat Ouanna. The straight sets win is at 1.6s, a little risky with a Frenchman involved and not supported by the stats, so the match bet for Gonzalez is the choice.
Andy MURRAY v Janko TIPSAREVIC Tipsarevic to win @ 7.0
These players share their previous matches with two victories each. None of those were on clay, however, Tipsarevic has form coming into this tournament, he has more French Open attempts under his belt and the odds on him in this match, considering that, are quite attractive. Favourites between 1.1 and 1.19 in this round have a 7-3 record and I wouldn't be surprised if Tipsarevic pulls off the win here. I am opting for the win.
Fernando VERDASCO v Nicolas ALMAGRO Almagro to win @ 7.8
The odds are way too risky on Verdasco here. Yes, he's got the form but Almagro can destroy opponents on clay when he has his game going. Almagro was a quarter-finalist here last year and should not be underestimated. On Verdasco's side are the previous matches, he leads 2-0, both on clay, both straight sets wins. My theory is that if Verdasco doesn't win this in three sets, Almagro could knock him out of this tournament. The stats suggest that a good choice here would be a lay of Verdasco 3-2. But I'm on the win for the underdog.
Radek STEPANEK v Marin CILIC Stepanek to win @ 2.26
Cilic is the favourite here, but the odds should be approached with some caution. Stepanek has a previous win against Cilic on clay, in straight sets. He has a superior clay court record. And he has a reasonably good French Open record. Stepanek to win.
Gilles SIMON v Victor HANESCU Hanescu to win @ 3.0
Hanescu is another former quarter-finalist who is possibly underestimated in this match. This is either a lay of Simon 3-0 or a straight bet on Hanescu. This has the signs of a 5 set match.
Robin SODERLING v David FERRER Soderling to win @ 2.94
Soderling has the potential to beat any player, but his temperament often lets him down. It could easily do against the frustrating return of serve of David Ferrer, but the conditions today and the stats suggest Soderling has an excellent chance of a win here.
Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Stanislas WAWRINKA Davydenko 3-0 @ 5.2
Wawrinka is capable of causing the Russian problems here, but whether he will play to his strengths is another matter.
Rafael Nadal and Roger FedererWill they play again in the final, or will one of the seven French players get through to challenge them?
Thursday 28 May 2009
French Open 2nd Round, Thursday results
No profit today, unfortunately, but some nice bets coming up for the 3rd Round, which was my most successful round last year.
Here are the results of the Thursday predictions.
WON Jose ACASUSO v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.02 (+0.2)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER Lay Robredo 3-0 @ 1.7 (-7)
WON Andreas BECK v Marc GICQUEL Lay Beck 3-0 @ 6.9 (+1.69)
LOST Andreas SEPPI v Maximo GONZALEZ Lay Gonzalez 3-0 @ 11.0 (-10)
LOST Martin V-ARGUELLO v Igor ANDREEV Lay Andreev 3-2 @ 6.7 (-10)
LOST Martin DEL POTRO v Viktor TROICKI Lay Del Potro 3-0 @ 1.67 (-6.7)
WON Juan MONACO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Lay Monaco 3-0 @ 5.4 (+2.27)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Guillarme RUFIN Lay Rufin 3-0 @ 22.0 (+0.48)
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Juan Carlos FERRERO Lay Kohlschreiber 3-0 @ 5.2 (+2.38)
WON Andy RODDICK v Ivo MINAR Lay Minar 3-0 @ 23.0 (+0.45)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -£26.23
Here are the results of the Thursday predictions.
WON Jose ACASUSO v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.02 (+0.2)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER Lay Robredo 3-0 @ 1.7 (-7)
WON Andreas BECK v Marc GICQUEL Lay Beck 3-0 @ 6.9 (+1.69)
LOST Andreas SEPPI v Maximo GONZALEZ Lay Gonzalez 3-0 @ 11.0 (-10)
LOST Martin V-ARGUELLO v Igor ANDREEV Lay Andreev 3-2 @ 6.7 (-10)
LOST Martin DEL POTRO v Viktor TROICKI Lay Del Potro 3-0 @ 1.67 (-6.7)
WON Juan MONACO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Lay Monaco 3-0 @ 5.4 (+2.27)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Guillarme RUFIN Lay Rufin 3-0 @ 22.0 (+0.48)
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Juan Carlos FERRERO Lay Kohlschreiber 3-0 @ 5.2 (+2.38)
WON Andy RODDICK v Ivo MINAR Lay Minar 3-0 @ 23.0 (+0.45)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -£26.23
French Open 2nd Round, Thursday
Thursday's French Open predictions, using similar methods to that of the previous 2nd Round matches.
Jeremy CHARDY v Simone BOLELLI No bet
I can't suggest any bet on this as it involves a French player at odds which don't give any obvious bets away. No bet.
Tommy ROBREDO v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER Lay Robredo 3-0 @ 1.7
Robredo should win this, but I am not sure it will be easy. Lay Robredo 3-0.
Andreas SEPPI v Maximo GONZALEZ Lay Gonzalez 3-0 @ 11.0
Andreas Seppi has the potential to have a good tournament here, and I can't see Gonzalez stopping him. However, to be on the safe side, a lay of Gonzalez 3-0 at reasonable odds is worth a shot.
Martin V-ARGUELLO v Igor ANDREEV Lay Andreev 3-2 @ 6.7
It's quite difficult to predict how Vassallo-Arguello will play in a match. Andreev, however, is very predictable, and while he may have inched his way into the second round in a deciding set last time, given the same situation today I am not sure he would manage it. Unlikely to get to that, however and so a lay of Andreev 3-2 is the bet.
Jose ACASUSO v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.02
Not much to say about this match. No guarantee of straight sets, and the odds for that are not good enough, but Federer should win.
Arnaud CLEMENT v Christopher ROCHUS Clement No bet
Not a match to bet on, I suspect a win for the French player, but Rochus has a tricky game.
Martin DEL POTRO v Viktor TROICKI Lay Del Potro 3-0 @ 1.67
Del Potro is one of the two favourites I would put at risk of a surprise defeat today but a safer bet could be a lay of 3-0 to him.
Leonardo MAYER v Tommy HAAS No bet
Leonardo Mayer is a quality clay courter but against Haas he may come unstuck. The odds on Haas are probably correct, but the stats don't show any bet is a good bet and so nothing available.
Juan MONACO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Lay Monaco 3-0 @ 5.4
Monaco seems to be overrated in every match he plays, but while he continues to win that can't be criticised. Tsonga however, should put up enough of a challenge to prevent the 3-0 and the price is good.
Andreas BECK v Marc GICQUEL Lay Beck 3-0 @ 6.9
Beck may be determined, but against probably the most impressive French player in the tournament's first round, I can't see an easy win. Lay of 3-0.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Pablo ANDUJAR No bet
I'm not sure about this match, Andujar doesn't strike me as having the calibre to win this, but Mathieu is more than capable of losing it. No bet.
Jurgen MELZER v Guillarme RUFIN Lay Rufin 3-0 @ 22.0
Rufin had a good first round victory but that could be where his French Open finishes. Melzer will be up for this. Lay Rufin 3-0.
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Juan Carlos FERRERO Lay Kohlschreiber 3-0 @ 5.2
Kohlschreiber isn't a player to guarantee you an easy win, and Ferrero will be improving with every match on these courts.
Victor CRIVOI v Gael MONFILS No bet
I am suspicious of a Monfils victory here, but the stats don't suggest a bet on the match odds is viable. Can't suggest any bet on this.
Andy RODDICK v Ivo MINAR Lay Minar 3-0 @ 23.0
Ivo Minar is the second opponent Roddick should beat quite easily on clay, but considering Roddick's record and potentially unhelpful conditions, a lay of 3-0 to Minar is the choice.
Sergiy STAKHOVSKY v Novak DJOKOVIC No bet
Here is another match where the favourite could be in trouble. Djokovic has form coming into this match, but he is playing a dangerous opponent who could quite easy cause a surprise. This is a no bet.
Jeremy CHARDY v Simone BOLELLI No bet
I can't suggest any bet on this as it involves a French player at odds which don't give any obvious bets away. No bet.
Tommy ROBREDO v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER Lay Robredo 3-0 @ 1.7
Robredo should win this, but I am not sure it will be easy. Lay Robredo 3-0.
Andreas SEPPI v Maximo GONZALEZ Lay Gonzalez 3-0 @ 11.0
Andreas Seppi has the potential to have a good tournament here, and I can't see Gonzalez stopping him. However, to be on the safe side, a lay of Gonzalez 3-0 at reasonable odds is worth a shot.
Martin V-ARGUELLO v Igor ANDREEV Lay Andreev 3-2 @ 6.7
It's quite difficult to predict how Vassallo-Arguello will play in a match. Andreev, however, is very predictable, and while he may have inched his way into the second round in a deciding set last time, given the same situation today I am not sure he would manage it. Unlikely to get to that, however and so a lay of Andreev 3-2 is the bet.
Jose ACASUSO v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.02
Not much to say about this match. No guarantee of straight sets, and the odds for that are not good enough, but Federer should win.
Arnaud CLEMENT v Christopher ROCHUS Clement No bet
Not a match to bet on, I suspect a win for the French player, but Rochus has a tricky game.
Martin DEL POTRO v Viktor TROICKI Lay Del Potro 3-0 @ 1.67
Del Potro is one of the two favourites I would put at risk of a surprise defeat today but a safer bet could be a lay of 3-0 to him.
Leonardo MAYER v Tommy HAAS No bet
Leonardo Mayer is a quality clay courter but against Haas he may come unstuck. The odds on Haas are probably correct, but the stats don't show any bet is a good bet and so nothing available.
Juan MONACO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Lay Monaco 3-0 @ 5.4
Monaco seems to be overrated in every match he plays, but while he continues to win that can't be criticised. Tsonga however, should put up enough of a challenge to prevent the 3-0 and the price is good.
Andreas BECK v Marc GICQUEL Lay Beck 3-0 @ 6.9
Beck may be determined, but against probably the most impressive French player in the tournament's first round, I can't see an easy win. Lay of 3-0.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Pablo ANDUJAR No bet
I'm not sure about this match, Andujar doesn't strike me as having the calibre to win this, but Mathieu is more than capable of losing it. No bet.
Jurgen MELZER v Guillarme RUFIN Lay Rufin 3-0 @ 22.0
Rufin had a good first round victory but that could be where his French Open finishes. Melzer will be up for this. Lay Rufin 3-0.
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Juan Carlos FERRERO Lay Kohlschreiber 3-0 @ 5.2
Kohlschreiber isn't a player to guarantee you an easy win, and Ferrero will be improving with every match on these courts.
Victor CRIVOI v Gael MONFILS No bet
I am suspicious of a Monfils victory here, but the stats don't suggest a bet on the match odds is viable. Can't suggest any bet on this.
Andy RODDICK v Ivo MINAR Lay Minar 3-0 @ 23.0
Ivo Minar is the second opponent Roddick should beat quite easily on clay, but considering Roddick's record and potentially unhelpful conditions, a lay of 3-0 to Minar is the choice.
Sergiy STAKHOVSKY v Novak DJOKOVIC No bet
Here is another match where the favourite could be in trouble. Djokovic has form coming into this match, but he is playing a dangerous opponent who could quite easy cause a surprise. This is a no bet.
Wednesday 27 May 2009
French Open 2nd Round results, Wednesday
Another day of profit, here are the results.
WON Andy MURRAY v Potito STARACE Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.40 (+10)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Rui MACHADO Gonzalez WIN @ 1.03 (+0.3)
WON Victor HANESCU v Mikhail YOUZHNY Lay Youzhny 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Robert KENDRICK v Gilles SIMON Simon WIN @ 1.13 (+1.3)
LOST Ph'p PETZSCHNER v F'ndo VERDASCO Lay Verdasco 3-0 @ 1.28 (-2.8)
WON Dudi SELA v Marin CILIC Lay Cilic 3-2 @ 14.5 (+0.74)
WON Nicolas KIEFER v David FERRER Lay Ferrer 3-0 @ 1.74 (+10)
WON Radek STEPANEK v Math'u MONTC'RT Lay Monc'rt 3-0 @ 27.0 (+0.38)
LOST N MASSU v Stanislas WAWRINKA Lay Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.9 (-9)
WON Josselin OUANNA v Marat SAFIN Lay Ouanna 3-0 @ 15.0 (+0.71)
WON Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Diego J'RA Davydenko WIN @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Andrey GOLUBEV v Lleyton HEWITT Lay Golubev 3-0 @ 22.0 (+0.48)
WON Rafael NADAL v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Nadal 3-0 @ 1.1 (+1)
Total profit on a £10 stake on each bet = 15.28
WON Andy MURRAY v Potito STARACE Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.40 (+10)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Rui MACHADO Gonzalez WIN @ 1.03 (+0.3)
WON Victor HANESCU v Mikhail YOUZHNY Lay Youzhny 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Robert KENDRICK v Gilles SIMON Simon WIN @ 1.13 (+1.3)
LOST Ph'p PETZSCHNER v F'ndo VERDASCO Lay Verdasco 3-0 @ 1.28 (-2.8)
WON Dudi SELA v Marin CILIC Lay Cilic 3-2 @ 14.5 (+0.74)
WON Nicolas KIEFER v David FERRER Lay Ferrer 3-0 @ 1.74 (+10)
WON Radek STEPANEK v Math'u MONTC'RT Lay Monc'rt 3-0 @ 27.0 (+0.38)
LOST N MASSU v Stanislas WAWRINKA Lay Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.9 (-9)
WON Josselin OUANNA v Marat SAFIN Lay Ouanna 3-0 @ 15.0 (+0.71)
WON Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Diego J'RA Davydenko WIN @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Andrey GOLUBEV v Lleyton HEWITT Lay Golubev 3-0 @ 22.0 (+0.48)
WON Rafael NADAL v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Nadal 3-0 @ 1.1 (+1)
Total profit on a £10 stake on each bet = 15.28
French Open 2nd Round, Wednesday
This round is never the easiest to predict at the French Open. For a start, the 'safe zone', odds at which a player is almost certain to win, is, based on odds, eliminated, or at least reduced significantly. More focused investigation however, reveals that in the last four years, French players have been been the major cause of such an effect. There are no French players against the lower priced favourites in this round and as such this suggests caution. Set betting is the topic of the day, so with my predictions today, there are many set betting options to avoid 'no bets'. Because of the set betting plans I am using, this could be one of those days in which I lose more bets than I win but nevertheless, for the second round overall I make a profit. The good thing about this round is that there is a greater chance of matches being completed. Additionally, lay bets at less than 2.0 are not for an equal stake, they are for an equal profit, although you could obviously use an equal stake if preferred.
Andy MURRAY v Potito STARACE Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.40
Potito Starace is underrated here, and his clay results are very good. Andy Murray allegedly dislikes early matches. While I can see trouble in this match for Murray, I cannot envisage an easy win for Starace or Murray and a lay of Murray 3-0 seems the choice.
Nicolas ALMAGRO v Ernests GULBIS No bet
Gulbis can be a tough player on clay, as proven by this tournament last year. However, his form is out and Almagro is a consistently good clay court player. I am quite surprised by the high odds on Almagro, but Gulbis is a tough competitor and with these odds, there is no probable result. No bet.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Rui MACHADO Gonzalez WIN @ 1.03
I cannot suggest a Machado win, however impressive his first round may have been. Gonzalez is reasonably good on clay, and his experience should see him win this match easily. Gonzalez to win.
Victor HANESCU v Mikhail YOUZHNY Lay Youzhny 3-2 @ 7.0
Mikhail Youzhny is on the borderline of some odd stats. 1.4s have a poor record at Roland Garros whereas 1.5s have a good record. As such, set betting would seem the option. Here I am opting for a lay of Youzhny 3-2.
Robin SODERLING v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Soderling's price is too risky for a bet on this, he should win but with his injury problems and Istomin's confidence, this is a no bet.
Janko TIPSAREVIC v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Tipsarevic at 1.6 is surely based on form. Lopez can play on clay. He rarely wins easily however, however, and at these prices there are no obvious bets. No bet.
Robert KENDRICK v Gilles SIMON Simon WIN @ 1.13
While Kendrick may have slogged his way through his first match, so did Simon, however, a lot will depend on Kendrick's serve here. I think Simon has enough to his return of serve to damage Kendrick's game and Kendrick is lacking in his return of serve. Gilles Simon will be bolstered by his first round victory and the fact he is playing in France. Simon to win.
Philipp PETZSCHNER v Fernando VERDASCO Lay Verdasco 3-0 @ 1.28
Petzschner is one of those players who could spring a surprise against a lot of players at lower odds, but I can't see that against an in-form Verdasco. Set betting again with a lay of Verdasco 3-0.
Dudi SELA v Marin CILIC Lay Cilic 3-2 @ 14.5
I think Cilic is at risk here, even though his form has been good his year. His odds are too minor to make him an outright win bet and yet a bet on his opponent would seem risky. Lay Cilic 3-2 could be an ideal choice.
Nicolas KIEFER v David FERRER Lay Ferrer 3-0 @ 1.74
Yet another player who potentially faces an embarassing knockout from the competition, Ferrer will have to ensure that Kiefer's game is restricted. I think he can do that easily however. Ferrer's return of serve is top notch and while he may have the odd wobble, considering his previous match, I can't see that today. But because of Kiefer's ability and the stats not providing any other option, this is a lay of Ferrer 3-0.
Radek STEPANEK v Mathieu MONTCOURT Lay Montcourt 3-0 @ 27.0
Here is a match in which I am seriously tempted to back the non-favourite. He is exactly the type of opponent that Stepanek's game could struggle against, added to fact that he is French. But players in the range of 1.15-1.19 have a 12-0 undefeated record in this round of French Open in four years and that has to suggest a Stepanek win. As such, I have to resort to a lay of 3-0 to Montcourt.
Nicolas MASSU v Stanislas WAWRINKA Lay Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.9
I am not convinced by Wawrinka's game having seen his round match, but Massu doesn't seem to win very easily. Yet the stats suggest that Wawrinka is at risk. Lay Wawrinka 3-0.
Josselin OUANNA v Marat SAFIN Lay Ouanna 3-0 @ 15.0
I am not sure at all about Ouanna's ability to destroy Safin here. Safin was powering through his previous match and seems to be confident of a good tournament. He'll have to avoid one of his tantrums in this encounter however, if he doesn't want to risk the wrath of the French crowd, and Ouanna will be up for this match. I can't see an easy win for Safin and I think Ouanna will not win 3-0. Lay of that score for Ouanna.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Diego JUNQUEIRA Davydenko WIN @ 1.05
Junqueira was impressive in his first match but he will surely be up against a tougher opponent in Davydenko today. The Russian has the opportunity of an easy win here, and I think he'll take it.
Andrey GOLUBEV v Lleyton HEWITT Lay Golubev 3-0 @ 22.0
Touted as a potential surprise defeat, I don't really think it would be that much of a surprise if Hewitt was to be knocked out in this match. Beating Karlovic will have given him a boost of confidence and as favourites of odds around 1.2 have a record which suggests a Hewitt win, the match odds seem avoidable. I am laying Golubev 3-0 here.
Rafael NADAL v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Nadal 3-0 @ 1.1
Nadal at is the strongest favourite in this round and as such I can see nothing but another 3-0 win for him. Players at the same odds have a 10-0 record in winning in straight sets and 1.1 for set betting is a reasonably good price.
Andy MURRAY v Potito STARACE Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.40
Potito Starace is underrated here, and his clay results are very good. Andy Murray allegedly dislikes early matches. While I can see trouble in this match for Murray, I cannot envisage an easy win for Starace or Murray and a lay of Murray 3-0 seems the choice.
Nicolas ALMAGRO v Ernests GULBIS No bet
Gulbis can be a tough player on clay, as proven by this tournament last year. However, his form is out and Almagro is a consistently good clay court player. I am quite surprised by the high odds on Almagro, but Gulbis is a tough competitor and with these odds, there is no probable result. No bet.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Rui MACHADO Gonzalez WIN @ 1.03
I cannot suggest a Machado win, however impressive his first round may have been. Gonzalez is reasonably good on clay, and his experience should see him win this match easily. Gonzalez to win.
Victor HANESCU v Mikhail YOUZHNY Lay Youzhny 3-2 @ 7.0
Mikhail Youzhny is on the borderline of some odd stats. 1.4s have a poor record at Roland Garros whereas 1.5s have a good record. As such, set betting would seem the option. Here I am opting for a lay of Youzhny 3-2.
Robin SODERLING v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Soderling's price is too risky for a bet on this, he should win but with his injury problems and Istomin's confidence, this is a no bet.
Janko TIPSAREVIC v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Tipsarevic at 1.6 is surely based on form. Lopez can play on clay. He rarely wins easily however, however, and at these prices there are no obvious bets. No bet.
Robert KENDRICK v Gilles SIMON Simon WIN @ 1.13
While Kendrick may have slogged his way through his first match, so did Simon, however, a lot will depend on Kendrick's serve here. I think Simon has enough to his return of serve to damage Kendrick's game and Kendrick is lacking in his return of serve. Gilles Simon will be bolstered by his first round victory and the fact he is playing in France. Simon to win.
Philipp PETZSCHNER v Fernando VERDASCO Lay Verdasco 3-0 @ 1.28
Petzschner is one of those players who could spring a surprise against a lot of players at lower odds, but I can't see that against an in-form Verdasco. Set betting again with a lay of Verdasco 3-0.
Dudi SELA v Marin CILIC Lay Cilic 3-2 @ 14.5
I think Cilic is at risk here, even though his form has been good his year. His odds are too minor to make him an outright win bet and yet a bet on his opponent would seem risky. Lay Cilic 3-2 could be an ideal choice.
Nicolas KIEFER v David FERRER Lay Ferrer 3-0 @ 1.74
Yet another player who potentially faces an embarassing knockout from the competition, Ferrer will have to ensure that Kiefer's game is restricted. I think he can do that easily however. Ferrer's return of serve is top notch and while he may have the odd wobble, considering his previous match, I can't see that today. But because of Kiefer's ability and the stats not providing any other option, this is a lay of Ferrer 3-0.
Radek STEPANEK v Mathieu MONTCOURT Lay Montcourt 3-0 @ 27.0
Here is a match in which I am seriously tempted to back the non-favourite. He is exactly the type of opponent that Stepanek's game could struggle against, added to fact that he is French. But players in the range of 1.15-1.19 have a 12-0 undefeated record in this round of French Open in four years and that has to suggest a Stepanek win. As such, I have to resort to a lay of 3-0 to Montcourt.
Nicolas MASSU v Stanislas WAWRINKA Lay Wawrinka 3-0 @ 1.9
I am not convinced by Wawrinka's game having seen his round match, but Massu doesn't seem to win very easily. Yet the stats suggest that Wawrinka is at risk. Lay Wawrinka 3-0.
Josselin OUANNA v Marat SAFIN Lay Ouanna 3-0 @ 15.0
I am not sure at all about Ouanna's ability to destroy Safin here. Safin was powering through his previous match and seems to be confident of a good tournament. He'll have to avoid one of his tantrums in this encounter however, if he doesn't want to risk the wrath of the French crowd, and Ouanna will be up for this match. I can't see an easy win for Safin and I think Ouanna will not win 3-0. Lay of that score for Ouanna.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Diego JUNQUEIRA Davydenko WIN @ 1.05
Junqueira was impressive in his first match but he will surely be up against a tougher opponent in Davydenko today. The Russian has the opportunity of an easy win here, and I think he'll take it.
Andrey GOLUBEV v Lleyton HEWITT Lay Golubev 3-0 @ 22.0
Touted as a potential surprise defeat, I don't really think it would be that much of a surprise if Hewitt was to be knocked out in this match. Beating Karlovic will have given him a boost of confidence and as favourites of odds around 1.2 have a record which suggests a Hewitt win, the match odds seem avoidable. I am laying Golubev 3-0 here.
Rafael NADAL v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Nadal 3-0 @ 1.1
Nadal at is the strongest favourite in this round and as such I can see nothing but another 3-0 win for him. Players at the same odds have a 10-0 record in winning in straight sets and 1.1 for set betting is a reasonably good price.
Tuesday 26 May 2009
French Open 1st Round, Tuesday results
Another day of profit?
WON Ivan NAVARRO v Andreas BECK Lay Navarro 3-1 @ 14.0 (+0.77)
WON Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael LLODRA Del Potro WIN @ 1.06 (+0.6)
WON Bobby REYNOLDS v Gael MONFILS Monfils WIN @ 1.17 (+1.7)
WON Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Bernard TOMIC Kohl'ber WIN @ 1.07 (+0.7)
WON Juan Carlos FERRERO v Ivan LJUBICIC Ferrero WIN @ 2.3 (+13)
LOST Marcos BAGHDATIS v Juan MONACO Baghdatis WIN @ 5.1 (-10)
WON Nicolas LAPENTTI v Novak DJOKOVIC Djokovic WIN @ 1.03 (+0.3)
WON Tommy ROBREDO v Adrian MANNARINO Robredo WIN @ 1.06 (+0.6)
WON Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ v Andreas SEPPI Seppi WIN @ 1.57 (+5.7)
WON Andrei PAVEL v Tommy HAAS Haas WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
LOST Julien BENNETEAU v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Benneteau WIN @ 3.0 (-10)
WON Fabrice SANTORO v Christophe ROCHUS Rochus WIN @ 2.22 (+12.2)
WON James BLAKE v Leonardo MAYER Mayer WIN @ 4.6 (+36)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £52.37
WON Ivan NAVARRO v Andreas BECK Lay Navarro 3-1 @ 14.0 (+0.77)
WON Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael LLODRA Del Potro WIN @ 1.06 (+0.6)
WON Bobby REYNOLDS v Gael MONFILS Monfils WIN @ 1.17 (+1.7)
WON Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Bernard TOMIC Kohl'ber WIN @ 1.07 (+0.7)
WON Juan Carlos FERRERO v Ivan LJUBICIC Ferrero WIN @ 2.3 (+13)
LOST Marcos BAGHDATIS v Juan MONACO Baghdatis WIN @ 5.1 (-10)
WON Nicolas LAPENTTI v Novak DJOKOVIC Djokovic WIN @ 1.03 (+0.3)
WON Tommy ROBREDO v Adrian MANNARINO Robredo WIN @ 1.06 (+0.6)
WON Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ v Andreas SEPPI Seppi WIN @ 1.57 (+5.7)
WON Andrei PAVEL v Tommy HAAS Haas WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
LOST Julien BENNETEAU v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Benneteau WIN @ 3.0 (-10)
WON Fabrice SANTORO v Christophe ROCHUS Rochus WIN @ 2.22 (+12.2)
WON James BLAKE v Leonardo MAYER Mayer WIN @ 4.6 (+36)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £52.37
French Open 1st Round, Tuesday
Here are my predictions for Tuesday's first round matches, based on statistics.
Victor CRIVOI v Simon GREUL No bet
Neither player strikes me as an excellent clay court player, Crivoi has some form coming into this tournament, but the stats say that with these odds, no bet is the choice.
Ivan NAVARRO v Andreas BECK Lay Navarro 3-1 @ 14.0
Hard to decide between these two, but set betting stats suggest Navarro is unlikely to win 3-1 against Beck, who has seen some form and should provide a good contest.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael LLODRA Del Potro WIN @ 1.06
Many are predicting that Llodra, after his sturdy efforts last year, could pull off a surprise result here. I don't think so. Del Potro is in form and is in the safe zone. Injury should be his main concern.
Marc GICQUEL v Rainer SCHUETTLER No bet
Gicquel would be my French pick of the day, but his odds are not supported by the stats. No bet.
Viktor TROICKI v Lukasz KUBOT No bet
Another no bet here, Kubot can pull off surprise results and Troicki isn't the most predictable player.
Marcos BAGHDATIS v Juan MONACO Baghdatis WIN @ 5.1
Baghdatis has plummeted down the rankings and Monaco has some form, but he is possibly overrated with these odds and Baghdatis won't go out of this tournament easily. I think this could be either way but the stats and odds suggest that along with other bets, Baghdatis is a good price here. Baghdatis to win.
Bobby REYNOLDS v Gael MONFILS Monfils WIN @ 1.17
Fantastic price for Monfils. Reynolds is an out of form player whose only chance here would be if he served excellently, and that is far from probable. Monfils to win.
Sergiy STAKHOVSKY v Brian DABUL No bet
Stakhovsky and Dabul are not two players you would want to predict a result on when the stats are not there to give any room for analysis. Dabul is probably the better player, but not worth a bet.
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Bernard TOMIC Kohlschreiber WIN @ 1.07
Kohlschreiber has played himself into form and his odds suggest he should win this easily.
Evgeny KOROLEV v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER No bet
I think Korolev will probably win this, but he can play some really poor matches and can't be guaranteed. I cannot advise a bet on this match.
Juan Carlos FERRERO v Ivan LJUBICIC Ferrero WIN @ 2.3
Ferrero is playing a Ljubicic who has improved on clay courts, but with these odds and the stats to back them up, Ferrero to win is the choice.
Nicolas LAPENTTI v Novak DJOKOVIC Djokovic WIN @ 1.03
Novak Djokovic has the potential to go far at this tournament, and it's extremely unlikely he will slip up in the first round. Lapentti may have his card so it could possibly be tricky but I suspect Djokovic will win this eventually.
Tommy ROBREDO v Adrian MANNARINO Robredo WIN @ 1.06
Yet another match that has been touted as a potential surprise result. I don't think so. Robredo has the nouse to win this easily and I think he will. Robredo to win.
Maximo GONZALEZ v Mardy FISH No bet
A no bet here, I think Fish should not be at the odds he is, but with those come stats that don't allow a bet on this.
Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ v Andreas SEPPI Seppi WIN @ 1.57
This is a risky bet for me. Andreas Seppi had some form recently but so does his opponent. Over a five set match I have to go for Seppi here. He will return more of Garcia-Lopez's serves than a lot of players, and added to the fact that a lot of 1.5s have lost this week, I am selecting Seppi to break that trend and win here.
Dmitri TURSUNOV v Arnaud CLEMENT No bet
A lot will depend on Tursunov's ability to avoid unforced errors in this match, if he does that he could provide a challenge. I don't think he will though, and I suspect Clement should win this. No bet though, too unpredictable.
Julien BENNETEAU v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Benneteau WIN @ 3.0
Julien Benneteau could provide the shock result today. Tsonga is not priced at these odds because of his clay court form and Benneteau comes into the tournament in a bit of form. One top ten player is almost always defeated in the first round, and my prediction is that it will be Tsonga. Benneteau to win.
Andrei PAVEL v Tommy HAAS Haas WIN @ 1.08
Andrei Pavel is not a player to be underestimated, particularly against a Tommy Haas whose A game is becoming more fleeting by the tournament. However, Haas should win this, although I wouldn't put money on the easy victory. Haas to win.
Fabrice SANTORO v Christophe ROCHUS Rochus WIN @ 2.22
Normally I would avoid betting against Santoro, but Rochus has the game to counteract him. The stats suggest a bet on Rochus is advisable.
James BLAKE v Leonardo MAYER Mayer WIN @ 4.6
Blake can play on clay but he is up against an improving player here. As with most French Opens one or two players make their name with a good tournament here and Mayer could be one of those this year. Or he could lose 3-0. But with these odds he is worth a shot. Mayer to win.
Victor CRIVOI v Simon GREUL No bet
Neither player strikes me as an excellent clay court player, Crivoi has some form coming into this tournament, but the stats say that with these odds, no bet is the choice.
Ivan NAVARRO v Andreas BECK Lay Navarro 3-1 @ 14.0
Hard to decide between these two, but set betting stats suggest Navarro is unlikely to win 3-1 against Beck, who has seen some form and should provide a good contest.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael LLODRA Del Potro WIN @ 1.06
Many are predicting that Llodra, after his sturdy efforts last year, could pull off a surprise result here. I don't think so. Del Potro is in form and is in the safe zone. Injury should be his main concern.
Marc GICQUEL v Rainer SCHUETTLER No bet
Gicquel would be my French pick of the day, but his odds are not supported by the stats. No bet.
Viktor TROICKI v Lukasz KUBOT No bet
Another no bet here, Kubot can pull off surprise results and Troicki isn't the most predictable player.
Marcos BAGHDATIS v Juan MONACO Baghdatis WIN @ 5.1
Baghdatis has plummeted down the rankings and Monaco has some form, but he is possibly overrated with these odds and Baghdatis won't go out of this tournament easily. I think this could be either way but the stats and odds suggest that along with other bets, Baghdatis is a good price here. Baghdatis to win.
Bobby REYNOLDS v Gael MONFILS Monfils WIN @ 1.17
Fantastic price for Monfils. Reynolds is an out of form player whose only chance here would be if he served excellently, and that is far from probable. Monfils to win.
Sergiy STAKHOVSKY v Brian DABUL No bet
Stakhovsky and Dabul are not two players you would want to predict a result on when the stats are not there to give any room for analysis. Dabul is probably the better player, but not worth a bet.
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Bernard TOMIC Kohlschreiber WIN @ 1.07
Kohlschreiber has played himself into form and his odds suggest he should win this easily.
Evgeny KOROLEV v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER No bet
I think Korolev will probably win this, but he can play some really poor matches and can't be guaranteed. I cannot advise a bet on this match.
Juan Carlos FERRERO v Ivan LJUBICIC Ferrero WIN @ 2.3
Ferrero is playing a Ljubicic who has improved on clay courts, but with these odds and the stats to back them up, Ferrero to win is the choice.
Nicolas LAPENTTI v Novak DJOKOVIC Djokovic WIN @ 1.03
Novak Djokovic has the potential to go far at this tournament, and it's extremely unlikely he will slip up in the first round. Lapentti may have his card so it could possibly be tricky but I suspect Djokovic will win this eventually.
Tommy ROBREDO v Adrian MANNARINO Robredo WIN @ 1.06
Yet another match that has been touted as a potential surprise result. I don't think so. Robredo has the nouse to win this easily and I think he will. Robredo to win.
Maximo GONZALEZ v Mardy FISH No bet
A no bet here, I think Fish should not be at the odds he is, but with those come stats that don't allow a bet on this.
Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ v Andreas SEPPI Seppi WIN @ 1.57
This is a risky bet for me. Andreas Seppi had some form recently but so does his opponent. Over a five set match I have to go for Seppi here. He will return more of Garcia-Lopez's serves than a lot of players, and added to the fact that a lot of 1.5s have lost this week, I am selecting Seppi to break that trend and win here.
Dmitri TURSUNOV v Arnaud CLEMENT No bet
A lot will depend on Tursunov's ability to avoid unforced errors in this match, if he does that he could provide a challenge. I don't think he will though, and I suspect Clement should win this. No bet though, too unpredictable.
Julien BENNETEAU v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Benneteau WIN @ 3.0
Julien Benneteau could provide the shock result today. Tsonga is not priced at these odds because of his clay court form and Benneteau comes into the tournament in a bit of form. One top ten player is almost always defeated in the first round, and my prediction is that it will be Tsonga. Benneteau to win.
Andrei PAVEL v Tommy HAAS Haas WIN @ 1.08
Andrei Pavel is not a player to be underestimated, particularly against a Tommy Haas whose A game is becoming more fleeting by the tournament. However, Haas should win this, although I wouldn't put money on the easy victory. Haas to win.
Fabrice SANTORO v Christophe ROCHUS Rochus WIN @ 2.22
Normally I would avoid betting against Santoro, but Rochus has the game to counteract him. The stats suggest a bet on Rochus is advisable.
James BLAKE v Leonardo MAYER Mayer WIN @ 4.6
Blake can play on clay but he is up against an improving player here. As with most French Opens one or two players make their name with a good tournament here and Mayer could be one of those this year. Or he could lose 3-0. But with these odds he is worth a shot. Mayer to win.
Monday 25 May 2009
French Open 1st Round, Monday results
Did I make a profit with my recommendations for Monday's matches? Yes I did.
WON Nicolas KIEFER v Ilia BOZOLJAC Lay Bozoljac 3-2 @ 11.0 (+1)
WON Victor HANESCU v Steve DARCIS Lay Darcis 3-0 @ 14.0 (+0.77)
WON Potito STARACE v Mischa ZVEREV Starace WIN @ 2.0 (+10)
WON Stanislas WAWRINKA v Nicolas DEVILDER Wawrinka WIN @ 1.07 (+0.7)
WON Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Stefan KOUBEK Davydenko win @ 1.11 (+1.1)
WON Robin SODERLING v Kevin KIM Soderling win @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Jiri VANEK Gonzalez win @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Rafael NADAL v Marcos DANIEL Nadal win @ 1.01 (+0.1)
LOST Rui MACHADO v Kristof VLIEGEN Vliegen win @ 2.16 (-10)
WON Diego JUNQUEIRA v Paul CAPDEVILLE Junqueira WIN @ 2.02 (+10.2)
WON Igor KUNITSYN v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Gabashvili WIN @ 2.16 (+11.6)
WON Janko TIPSAREVIC v Albert MONTANES Tipsarevic WIN @ 2.16 (+11.6)
WON Alberto MARTIN v Roger FEDERER Federer 3-0 @ 1.23 (+2.3)
LOST Guillarme RUFIN v Eduardo SCHWANK Schwank WIN @ 1.17 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Sergio ROITMAN Lay Roitman 3-0 @ 17.0 (+0.63)
WON Robby GINEPRI v Pablo ANDUJAR Andujar WIN @ 2.1 (+11)
LOST Tomas BELLUCCI v Martin V-ARGUELLO Bellucci WIN @ 2.12 (-10)
LOST Oscar HERNANDEZ v Ivo MINAR Hernandez WIN @ 1.44 (-10)
WON Andy RODDICK v Romain JOUAN Roddick WIN @ 1.05 (+0.5)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £21.92
WON Nicolas KIEFER v Ilia BOZOLJAC Lay Bozoljac 3-2 @ 11.0 (+1)
WON Victor HANESCU v Steve DARCIS Lay Darcis 3-0 @ 14.0 (+0.77)
WON Potito STARACE v Mischa ZVEREV Starace WIN @ 2.0 (+10)
WON Stanislas WAWRINKA v Nicolas DEVILDER Wawrinka WIN @ 1.07 (+0.7)
WON Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Stefan KOUBEK Davydenko win @ 1.11 (+1.1)
WON Robin SODERLING v Kevin KIM Soderling win @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Jiri VANEK Gonzalez win @ 1.05 (+0.5)
WON Rafael NADAL v Marcos DANIEL Nadal win @ 1.01 (+0.1)
LOST Rui MACHADO v Kristof VLIEGEN Vliegen win @ 2.16 (-10)
WON Diego JUNQUEIRA v Paul CAPDEVILLE Junqueira WIN @ 2.02 (+10.2)
WON Igor KUNITSYN v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Gabashvili WIN @ 2.16 (+11.6)
WON Janko TIPSAREVIC v Albert MONTANES Tipsarevic WIN @ 2.16 (+11.6)
WON Alberto MARTIN v Roger FEDERER Federer 3-0 @ 1.23 (+2.3)
LOST Guillarme RUFIN v Eduardo SCHWANK Schwank WIN @ 1.17 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Sergio ROITMAN Lay Roitman 3-0 @ 17.0 (+0.63)
WON Robby GINEPRI v Pablo ANDUJAR Andujar WIN @ 2.1 (+11)
LOST Tomas BELLUCCI v Martin V-ARGUELLO Bellucci WIN @ 2.12 (-10)
LOST Oscar HERNANDEZ v Ivo MINAR Hernandez WIN @ 1.44 (-10)
WON Andy RODDICK v Romain JOUAN Roddick WIN @ 1.05 (+0.5)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £21.92
French Open 1st Round, Monday
Here are my predictions, using stats of course, for the French Open first round matches today. I am cautious of player injuries today.
Nicolas KIEFER v Ilia BOZOLJAC Lay Bozoljac 3-2 @ 11.0
Nicolas Kiefer's fitness cannot be relied on and while I think he will win this match, and the stats support that, I have to resort to set betting on this. The stats suggest Bozoljac, if he wins, will not win 3-2 and therefore I opt for a lay of 3-2 at 11.0
Santiago GIRALDO v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Giraldo is the better clay court player but the odds don't give anything away and Istomin is too unpredictable to take anything but a guess at this. A match to be avoided.
Victor HANESCU v Steve DARCIS Lay Darcis 3-0 @ 14.0
Darcis is unlikely to be able to compete with an experienced player like Hanescu, but again I am not sure either player is in the best shape. Set betting again and a lay of Darcis 3-0 at 14.0
Mikhail YOUZHNY v Gilles MULLER No bet
Youzhny isn't a player to put a lot of money on, even though he is likely to dominate Muller, who is majorly reliant on his serve, so I would not advise betting on this match.
Potito STARACE v Mischa ZVEREV Starace WIN @ 2.0
One of my choices of the day. Can't really see how Zverev is the favourite in this match and Starace has a good clay court record. As the slight non-favourite I would have to choose the Italian to win this match. Starace to win @ 2.0.
Stanislas WAWRINKA v Nicolas DEVILDER Wawrinka WIN @ 1.07
Wawrinka is allegedly one of the form players entering this Grand Slam. I am not so convinced and I think his victory over Federer swayed people a little too much. I have seen too many occasions when he has lost what seemed to be heading for an easy victory. But then today his opponent is Devilder, who seems only capable of performing in South America and and whilst he may be French, he is unlikely to trouble the Swiss player today. Wawrinka to win @ 1.07.
Nicolas MASSU v Daniel KOELLERER No bet
The odds would suggest Massu, but his form is so poor that combined with Koellerer's tenacity and improvement this year, this match is definitely not one to bet on.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Stefan KOUBEK Davydenko win @ 1.11
Davydenko's odds have dropped and as such make him a player I would now construe as within the safe zone. He should win this. I don't think Koubek has either the ability or energy to match Davydenko on these courts. A word of caution though, Davydenko is one of the most frequent retirers on the tour and it may be worth laying off if he takes a set lead. I don't think he'll retire today but with him, you never know. Davydenko to win @ 1.11.
Robin SODERLING v Kevin KIM Soderling win @ 1.05
Yet another player with a dodgy fitness history, if he is not injured, Soderling will win against this American pretender, most probably 3-0. Soderling to win @ 1.05.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Jiri VANEK Gonzalez win @ 1.05
Whilst Vanek may be capable in the minor tournaments on clay, against a top player such as Gonzalez on this stage, I think he may struggle. No guarantee of 3-0 and so I opt for Gonzalez to win @ 1.05.
Franco FERREIRO v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Franco Ferreiro wouldn't win against many opponents, but someone like Lopez whose game can plummet without his serve should not be recommended. No bet on this.
Rafael NADAL v Marcos DANIEL Nadal win @ 1.01
Unsure of this match. Set betting that is, Nadal 3-0 should be bigger than 1.1, despite his record at this tournament. Nadal's form on clay this year has not been as convincing as in previous years coming into this tournament. He will win at 1.01.
Rui MACHADO v Kristof VLIEGEN Vliegen win @ 2.16
Machado is a potential threat on this surface, but I think Vliegen will have the quality to win this. The stats suggest he is worth a bet at 2.16
Diego JUNQUEIRA v Paul CAPDEVILLE Junqueira WIN @ 2.02
Capdeville is one of the least reliable players on the tour. This match is unlikely to be an easy win for either player, but Capdeville is at risk here. Junqueira to win at 2.02.
Igor KUNITSYN v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Gabashvili WIN @ 2.16
Kunitsyn is one of those players who begins matches well, then, when he is about to win, doesn't. Gabashvili is a prominent player when outside the main events and I feel that, without any other influences, this match could be won by him. Gabashvili @ 2.16.
Janko TIPSAREVIC v Albert MONTANES Tipsarevic WIN @ 2.16
Tipsarevic has shown form immediately before the start of this tournament and that has to be a concern for the improved Montanes. The stats suggest Tipsarevic @ 2.16.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Laurent RECOUDERC No bet
Mathieu is unconvincing and can make any match turn into a horror show. Recouderc will be up for this match, although I am unconvinced by his ability. Frenchman + Frenchman = no bet.
Jose ACASUSO v Santiago VENTURA No bet
Another no bet for this match, Ventura has ability but again his successes come in patches, and there is no guarantee he is heading into one at the moment. Acasuso is not prolific on clay either. The stats are not showing anything for this. No bet.
Alberto MARTIN v Roger FEDERER Federer 3-0 @ 1.23
Presumably Martin's clay court pedigree has boosted Federer's set betting odds to ridiculous proportions. Unfortunately for him, his pedigree is masked by his lack of fitness and against Federer this seems an easy 3-0 win for the Swiss player. Federer to win 3-0 at 1.23.
Bjorn PHAU v Jeremy CHARDY No bet
Chardy has been out of form, and whilst he may have had good spells last year, and he is French, this tournament could be poor for him in comparison to last year. The odds don't shout Chardy win, even though Phau seems unlikely. No bet.
Guillarme RUFIN v Eduardo SCHWANK Schwank WIN @ 1.17
Not convinced by the chances of outside Rufin here, and I feel he is one to avoid. Last year Schwank entered this tournament on the back of an excellent run, this year less so. He should win however at 1.17.
Jurgen MELZER v Sergio ROITMAN Lay Roitman 3-0 @ 17.0
Not convinced by Melzer's fitness or clay court ability and Roitman is a dangerous player. He could win this, but I doubt it will be 3-0 and so a lay of that is the choice.
Robby GINEPRI v Pablo ANDUJAR Andujar WIN @ 2.1
Andujar wouldn't be the first player I would opt for to win at these odds, but against Ginepri, who is generally awful outside the USA, the odds and stats say Andujar at 2.1.
Simone BOLELLI v Tomas BERDYCH No bet
Berdych has the clay court ability, but seems unable to deliver when it counts and Bolelli has a chance of winning this today. No bet.
Tomas BELLUCCI v Martin VASSALLO-ARGUELLO Bellucci WIN @ 2.12
Bellucci should have a good chance against Vassallo-Arguello, who seems incapable of winning easily and isn't always focused on his tennis. Bellucci has the opportunity to do well at this tournament and as the non-favourite he must be chosen to take that chance. Bellucci to win at 2.12.
Fabio FOGNINI v Igor ANDREEV No bet
The stats say a lay of Andreev but his odds are borderline between 1.5 and 1.6 and as such they don't state the lay strongly enough. Fognini is temperamental to say the least and I cannot suggest a bet against Andreev on these courts at these odds. No bet.
Oscar HERNANDEZ v Ivo MINAR Hernandez WIN @ 1.44
Hernandez should have the ability to win this against Minar. Hernandez' form has been improved, Minar has a minor threat here, but I think Hernandez should win 3-0 or 3-1. Hernandez win at 1.44.
Andy RODDICK v Romain JOUAN Roddick WIN @ 1.05
Andy Roddick, who would bet on him at the French Open. Numerous early round defeats, a dislike for clay-courts, and yet today, I am betting on him. Jouan can't outsee Roddick over 5 sets, and the odds state Roddick easy win. I am not sure how easy but he should win at 1.05.
Nicolas KIEFER v Ilia BOZOLJAC Lay Bozoljac 3-2 @ 11.0
Nicolas Kiefer's fitness cannot be relied on and while I think he will win this match, and the stats support that, I have to resort to set betting on this. The stats suggest Bozoljac, if he wins, will not win 3-2 and therefore I opt for a lay of 3-2 at 11.0
Santiago GIRALDO v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Giraldo is the better clay court player but the odds don't give anything away and Istomin is too unpredictable to take anything but a guess at this. A match to be avoided.
Victor HANESCU v Steve DARCIS Lay Darcis 3-0 @ 14.0
Darcis is unlikely to be able to compete with an experienced player like Hanescu, but again I am not sure either player is in the best shape. Set betting again and a lay of Darcis 3-0 at 14.0
Mikhail YOUZHNY v Gilles MULLER No bet
Youzhny isn't a player to put a lot of money on, even though he is likely to dominate Muller, who is majorly reliant on his serve, so I would not advise betting on this match.
Potito STARACE v Mischa ZVEREV Starace WIN @ 2.0
One of my choices of the day. Can't really see how Zverev is the favourite in this match and Starace has a good clay court record. As the slight non-favourite I would have to choose the Italian to win this match. Starace to win @ 2.0.
Stanislas WAWRINKA v Nicolas DEVILDER Wawrinka WIN @ 1.07
Wawrinka is allegedly one of the form players entering this Grand Slam. I am not so convinced and I think his victory over Federer swayed people a little too much. I have seen too many occasions when he has lost what seemed to be heading for an easy victory. But then today his opponent is Devilder, who seems only capable of performing in South America and and whilst he may be French, he is unlikely to trouble the Swiss player today. Wawrinka to win @ 1.07.
Nicolas MASSU v Daniel KOELLERER No bet
The odds would suggest Massu, but his form is so poor that combined with Koellerer's tenacity and improvement this year, this match is definitely not one to bet on.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Stefan KOUBEK Davydenko win @ 1.11
Davydenko's odds have dropped and as such make him a player I would now construe as within the safe zone. He should win this. I don't think Koubek has either the ability or energy to match Davydenko on these courts. A word of caution though, Davydenko is one of the most frequent retirers on the tour and it may be worth laying off if he takes a set lead. I don't think he'll retire today but with him, you never know. Davydenko to win @ 1.11.
Robin SODERLING v Kevin KIM Soderling win @ 1.05
Yet another player with a dodgy fitness history, if he is not injured, Soderling will win against this American pretender, most probably 3-0. Soderling to win @ 1.05.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Jiri VANEK Gonzalez win @ 1.05
Whilst Vanek may be capable in the minor tournaments on clay, against a top player such as Gonzalez on this stage, I think he may struggle. No guarantee of 3-0 and so I opt for Gonzalez to win @ 1.05.
Franco FERREIRO v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Franco Ferreiro wouldn't win against many opponents, but someone like Lopez whose game can plummet without his serve should not be recommended. No bet on this.
Rafael NADAL v Marcos DANIEL Nadal win @ 1.01
Unsure of this match. Set betting that is, Nadal 3-0 should be bigger than 1.1, despite his record at this tournament. Nadal's form on clay this year has not been as convincing as in previous years coming into this tournament. He will win at 1.01.
Rui MACHADO v Kristof VLIEGEN Vliegen win @ 2.16
Machado is a potential threat on this surface, but I think Vliegen will have the quality to win this. The stats suggest he is worth a bet at 2.16
Diego JUNQUEIRA v Paul CAPDEVILLE Junqueira WIN @ 2.02
Capdeville is one of the least reliable players on the tour. This match is unlikely to be an easy win for either player, but Capdeville is at risk here. Junqueira to win at 2.02.
Igor KUNITSYN v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Gabashvili WIN @ 2.16
Kunitsyn is one of those players who begins matches well, then, when he is about to win, doesn't. Gabashvili is a prominent player when outside the main events and I feel that, without any other influences, this match could be won by him. Gabashvili @ 2.16.
Janko TIPSAREVIC v Albert MONTANES Tipsarevic WIN @ 2.16
Tipsarevic has shown form immediately before the start of this tournament and that has to be a concern for the improved Montanes. The stats suggest Tipsarevic @ 2.16.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Laurent RECOUDERC No bet
Mathieu is unconvincing and can make any match turn into a horror show. Recouderc will be up for this match, although I am unconvinced by his ability. Frenchman + Frenchman = no bet.
Jose ACASUSO v Santiago VENTURA No bet
Another no bet for this match, Ventura has ability but again his successes come in patches, and there is no guarantee he is heading into one at the moment. Acasuso is not prolific on clay either. The stats are not showing anything for this. No bet.
Alberto MARTIN v Roger FEDERER Federer 3-0 @ 1.23
Presumably Martin's clay court pedigree has boosted Federer's set betting odds to ridiculous proportions. Unfortunately for him, his pedigree is masked by his lack of fitness and against Federer this seems an easy 3-0 win for the Swiss player. Federer to win 3-0 at 1.23.
Bjorn PHAU v Jeremy CHARDY No bet
Chardy has been out of form, and whilst he may have had good spells last year, and he is French, this tournament could be poor for him in comparison to last year. The odds don't shout Chardy win, even though Phau seems unlikely. No bet.
Guillarme RUFIN v Eduardo SCHWANK Schwank WIN @ 1.17
Not convinced by the chances of outside Rufin here, and I feel he is one to avoid. Last year Schwank entered this tournament on the back of an excellent run, this year less so. He should win however at 1.17.
Jurgen MELZER v Sergio ROITMAN Lay Roitman 3-0 @ 17.0
Not convinced by Melzer's fitness or clay court ability and Roitman is a dangerous player. He could win this, but I doubt it will be 3-0 and so a lay of that is the choice.
Robby GINEPRI v Pablo ANDUJAR Andujar WIN @ 2.1
Andujar wouldn't be the first player I would opt for to win at these odds, but against Ginepri, who is generally awful outside the USA, the odds and stats say Andujar at 2.1.
Simone BOLELLI v Tomas BERDYCH No bet
Berdych has the clay court ability, but seems unable to deliver when it counts and Bolelli has a chance of winning this today. No bet.
Tomas BELLUCCI v Martin VASSALLO-ARGUELLO Bellucci WIN @ 2.12
Bellucci should have a good chance against Vassallo-Arguello, who seems incapable of winning easily and isn't always focused on his tennis. Bellucci has the opportunity to do well at this tournament and as the non-favourite he must be chosen to take that chance. Bellucci to win at 2.12.
Fabio FOGNINI v Igor ANDREEV No bet
The stats say a lay of Andreev but his odds are borderline between 1.5 and 1.6 and as such they don't state the lay strongly enough. Fognini is temperamental to say the least and I cannot suggest a bet against Andreev on these courts at these odds. No bet.
Oscar HERNANDEZ v Ivo MINAR Hernandez WIN @ 1.44
Hernandez should have the ability to win this against Minar. Hernandez' form has been improved, Minar has a minor threat here, but I think Hernandez should win 3-0 or 3-1. Hernandez win at 1.44.
Andy RODDICK v Romain JOUAN Roddick WIN @ 1.05
Andy Roddick, who would bet on him at the French Open. Numerous early round defeats, a dislike for clay-courts, and yet today, I am betting on him. Jouan can't outsee Roddick over 5 sets, and the odds state Roddick easy win. I am not sure how easy but he should win at 1.05.
Sunday 24 May 2009
Results of French Open first round predictions
How did the first round predictions get on today?
WON Lleyton HEWITT v Ivo KARLOVIC Lay Karlovic 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Florent SERRA (FRA) v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Denis GREMELMAYR v Andrey GOLUBEV Gremelmayr WIN @ 2.1 (-10)
WON Dudi SELA v Jean Rene LISNARD (FRA) Sela WIN @ 2.26 (+12.6)
WON Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) v Marat SAFIN Safin WIN @ 1.23 (+2.3)
WON Jan HERNYCH v Marin CILIC Cilic WIN @ 1.2 (+2)
VOID Yen-Hsun LU v Mathieu MONTCOURT (FRA) Lay 3-2 LU @ 9.0
WON Peter POLANSKY v Philipp PETZSCHNER Lay Polansky 3-0 @ 5.1 (+2.4)
WON Wayne ODESNIK v Gilles SIMON (FRA) Simon WIN @ 1.2 (+2)
WON Nicolas ALMAGRO v Agustin CALLERI Lay Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Andy MURRAY v Juan Ignacio CHELA Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0 (+0.38)
LOST Ernests GULBIS v Sam QUERREY Querrey WIN @2.1 (-10)
WON Frederico GIL v David FERRER Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0 (+0.63)
WON Daniel BRANDS v Robert KENDRICK Lay Brands 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £8.32
WON Lleyton HEWITT v Ivo KARLOVIC Lay Karlovic 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Florent SERRA (FRA) v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Denis GREMELMAYR v Andrey GOLUBEV Gremelmayr WIN @ 2.1 (-10)
WON Dudi SELA v Jean Rene LISNARD (FRA) Sela WIN @ 2.26 (+12.6)
WON Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) v Marat SAFIN Safin WIN @ 1.23 (+2.3)
WON Jan HERNYCH v Marin CILIC Cilic WIN @ 1.2 (+2)
VOID Yen-Hsun LU v Mathieu MONTCOURT (FRA) Lay 3-2 LU @ 9.0
WON Peter POLANSKY v Philipp PETZSCHNER Lay Polansky 3-0 @ 5.1 (+2.4)
WON Wayne ODESNIK v Gilles SIMON (FRA) Simon WIN @ 1.2 (+2)
WON Nicolas ALMAGRO v Agustin CALLERI Lay Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
WON Andy MURRAY v Juan Ignacio CHELA Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0 (+0.38)
LOST Ernests GULBIS v Sam QUERREY Querrey WIN @2.1 (-10)
WON Frederico GIL v David FERRER Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0 (+0.63)
WON Daniel BRANDS v Robert KENDRICK Lay Brands 3-2 @ 7.0 (+1.67)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = £8.32
French Open 1st Round matches
So, this was the time last year that I really started to build some major profit with my sports betting. The question is, can I do that again?
I am kicking it off with the French Open and some reasonably focused statistical analysis. For those of you who are interested in sports statistics this could make interesting reading.
All of my analysis on men's tennis is based on the previous four years tournaments, often just from the round of matches to which it refers.
I'll start with posting some information on the set patterns within the French Open.
Where F = Favourite and NF = Non-Favourite, these are the number of times a particular set pattern has occured in the first round of this tournament.
114 F-F-F
23 NF-F-F-F
19 NF-NF-NF
17 F-F-NF-F
15 F-NF-F-F
7 F-NF-NF-NF
7 F-F-NF-NF-F
5 NF-NF-F-NF
4 NF-F-NF-NF
4 NF-F-F-NF-F
4 F-NF-NF-F-NF
4 F-NF-F-NF-NF
4 F-F-NF-NF-NF
4 NF-F-NF-F-NF
3 F-NF-NF-F-F
3 NF-F-F-NF-NF
2 F-NF-F-NF-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-NF
1 NF-F-NF-F-F
114 3-0 F
55 3-1 F
19 3-2 F
19 3-0 NF
16 3-1 NF
21 3-2 NF
Obviously, across the board you can't apply this to particular matches, but it is worth noting these patterns as you can potentially calculate the probability of a player winning the match from a particular stage, say two sets ahead when they started the match as favourite. It is interesting to see that while most bookies will offer you bigger odds on 3-2 to the non-favourite than 3-1, the reverse should be offered based on the statistics.
To get more analytical, it is necessary to compare set results to particular match odds. Using the odds from Bet365, here are the numbers in terms of set scores, alongside the odds for the favourite. The order of these numbers is 3-0F/3-1F/3-2F/3-0NF/3-1NF/3-2NF/Ret.
1.01 9/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.02 6/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.03 4/1/2/0/0/0/0
1.04 1/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.05 0/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.06 7/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.07 4/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.08 5/2/0/0/0/0/0
1.10 1/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.11 7/2/0/0/0/0/1
1.12 4/1/1/0/1/1/0
1.14 6/2/2/0/0/0/0
1.16 1/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.19 0/1/0/0/0/1/0
1.20 1/1/1/0/0/1/0
1.22 6/2/1/0/1/1/0
1.25 5/1/0/1/0/1/0
1.28 7/1/0/2/0/1/1
1.30 1/3/0/0/0/0/0
1.33 3/2/1/1/1/1/0
1.36 5/3/1/0/3/1/1
1.38 1/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.39 1/1/1/1/0/0/1
1.40 0/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.44 7/1/1/1/2/2/0
1.50 3/3/0/1/1/0/1
1.53 3/2/0/1/1/1/0
1.57 5/5/2/1/0/1/1
1.61 1/2/0/2/1/1/1
1.66 4/2/1/2/0/2/0
1.72 4/3/2/0/1/3/0
1.8+ 0/5/1/4/4/1/3
For this period of matches, there have been no favourites at less than 1.12 that have lost. Three of them have retired. A favourite at 1.01 should be 1.10 or less to win the set in straight sets. A favourite at 1.8+ hasn't won the set 3-0, and in fact, has lost more times than has won. So these are statistics I shall use when betting.
No player ranked greater than 400 has won in this period. There are two of them in the first round of this tournament and they should be avoided.
One of the worlds top 10 loses almost every year in the first round.
Here are my predictions for the first batch of matches - and the reasons for them.
Lleyton HEWITT v Ivo KARLOVIC Lay Karlovic 3-2 @ 7.0
Hewitt is at 1.5s. The stats match the odds for the chances of him winning, and whilst he is not great on clay courts, his record recently is 20-8 whereas the improved Karlovic has lost more than he has won. The Croatian does have a good record against Hewitt, 2-0 in four years. Hewitt has a good return of serve but his own serve will give Karlovic chances. This game is based almost entirely on Karlovic's serve, but it won't go to 3-2 and the stats don't support that either.
Florent SERRA (FRA) v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco WIN @ 1.1
Potentially risky for the Spaniard, but Serra, with a 49% record on clay courts, isn't the most likely French winner in this round. Verdasco's form and multi-surface ability will see him win this match easily. I'm not sure it will be 3-0, but he shouldn't have too many problems.
Marcel GRANOLLERS v Josselin OUANNA (FRA) No bet
Ouanna on the other hand, is a potentially dangerous player against another Spaniard who has less form and definitely is superior on hard courts. Ouanna is reasonably ranked to pull a surprise victory here and with Granollers at 1.57, the bookies are hesitant about his chances. My recommendation would not the Ouanna win however. He has lost all of his matches on clay on the ATP tour in the last four years. No bet.
Denis GREMELMAYR v Andrey GOLUBEV Gremelmayr WIN @ 2.1
Here is a match in which the favourite is incorrectly priced. Golubev hasn't played a competitive match on clay at this level, Gremelmayr has a 12-10 record. There are two potential bets here, you could lay the 3-0 Gremelmayr, risky, but most likely successful. But I would opt for the win for Gremelmayr @ 2.1.
Dudi SELA v Jean Rene LISNARD (FRA) Sela WIN @ 2.26
Jean Rene Lisnard is French but that doesn't make him a world beater. Dudi Sela has enough ability to see of this French pretender. In fact, with Lisnard at 1.83, I think the only option in this match is a Sela win @ 2.26.
Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) v Marat SAFIN Safin WIN @ 1.23
Marat Safin has a reasonable record on clay and against this wild-card he should win. May not be the easiest win, but I would bet on him. Safin to win at 1.22.
Jan HERNYCH v Marin CILIC Cilic WIN @ 1.2
Neither of these players has a great clay court record, but Cilic is the form player and that is reflected in his odds. I'm not sure this will be straight sets, but the recommendation is simple. Cilic to win @ 1.2.
Yen-Hsun LU v Mathieu MONTCOURT (FRA) Lay 3-2 LU @ 9.0
An almost impossible match to call. Lu, who has injury problems, the better player against an opponent who elsewhere he may beat easily. The only option here is to use the stats cautiously with a minor lay of 3-2 Lu.
Peter POLANSKY v Philipp PETZSCHNER Lay Polansky 3-0 @ 5.1
Odds on this match have switched. Petzschner was the bookie's favourite. Petzschner is a player who pulls off wins when you least expect him to. Today he has a chance to win against a player he should beat easily and I doubt it will be that simple. In fact he may lose. This is a lay of Polansky 3-0 at 5.1.
Wayne ODESNIK v Gilles SIMON (FRA) Simon WIN @ 1.2
Yet another 1.2 shot, but this time for a French player who is in form. Bookies continue to be undecided on Simon, and on this occasion perhaps correctly. Odesnik has a 10-4 record on clay in four years, albeit mostly on American clay. He is 3-2 on European clay courts however. Simon has a 50-30 record on clay, so added to his nationality, this is likely to stand him in a good position to win the match. An obvious bet. Simon to win @ 1.2.
Radek STEPANEK v Gaston GAUDIO No bet
With Gaudio's record at this tournament, Stepanek becomes a doubt, particularly at this odds. But Gaudio's record has recently been atrocious and Stepanek should surely be able to defeat him. Most factors are in Stepanek's favour, but I don't like the odds here. I would have placed him at 1.3s at least. This is a no bet.
Nicolas ALMAGRO v Agustin CALLERI Lay Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0
Almagro is apparently the best clay courter in the world other than Nadal. I heard that before on a news channel. Personally I would have chosen Federer but maybe his stats would stand up to that. 94-51. Federer, without checking is something like 69-13. So maybe that news channel need to do some more research. Almagro should outplay Calleri here, the Argentine has injury concerns and I can't see anything but a win for Almagro. 3-0 or 3-1 but certainly not 3-2 and so a lay of Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0 is the bet.
Andy MURRAY v Juan Ignacio CHELA Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0
Not the ideal match for Murray against someone with ability on clay. Murray is potentially the biggest risk of the world's top ten in this round. 1.13 puts him just outside the safe zone and so the only option is to look at the set betting. Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0.
Ernests GULBIS v Sam QUERREY Querrey WIN @2.1
Sam Querrey has been showing form on clay, which is unusual for a power-serving American. Gulbis has been in atrocious form, and while he may be defending ranking points from a successful tournament last year, his odds at 1.83 are reasonable. I am not sure who will win this, but as with most 1.8+ favourites, I will select their opponent. Querrey to win @ 2.1.
Frederico GIL v David FERRER Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0
Strangely, Ferrer is not in the safe zone either. The bookies are showing signs that they rate Gil quite highly. He's fine, but he's not a world beater and I think Ferrer will win. But as with other players at these odds he's outside of the safe zone and can't be risked. So, the set betting again. Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0.
Daniel BRANDS v Robert KENDRICK Lay Brands 3-2 @ 7.0
Not really the easiest match to predict based on player knowledge. Kendrick of course is reliant on his serve and I think that will fail him on this occasion. Brands is correctly priced at 1.5, the odds give nothing away compared to the stats, so my bet is a lay of Brands 3-2 @ 7.0.
Note these are my recommended bets. I generally bet in-play using stats, so I will post all of my betting results on here for each day to show the profit I have made.
I am kicking it off with the French Open and some reasonably focused statistical analysis. For those of you who are interested in sports statistics this could make interesting reading.
All of my analysis on men's tennis is based on the previous four years tournaments, often just from the round of matches to which it refers.
I'll start with posting some information on the set patterns within the French Open.
Where F = Favourite and NF = Non-Favourite, these are the number of times a particular set pattern has occured in the first round of this tournament.
114 F-F-F
23 NF-F-F-F
19 NF-NF-NF
17 F-F-NF-F
15 F-NF-F-F
7 F-NF-NF-NF
7 F-F-NF-NF-F
5 NF-NF-F-NF
4 NF-F-NF-NF
4 NF-F-F-NF-F
4 F-NF-NF-F-NF
4 F-NF-F-NF-NF
4 F-F-NF-NF-NF
4 NF-F-NF-F-NF
3 F-NF-NF-F-F
3 NF-F-F-NF-NF
2 F-NF-F-NF-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-F
2 NF-NF-F-F-NF
1 NF-F-NF-F-F
114 3-0 F
55 3-1 F
19 3-2 F
19 3-0 NF
16 3-1 NF
21 3-2 NF
Obviously, across the board you can't apply this to particular matches, but it is worth noting these patterns as you can potentially calculate the probability of a player winning the match from a particular stage, say two sets ahead when they started the match as favourite. It is interesting to see that while most bookies will offer you bigger odds on 3-2 to the non-favourite than 3-1, the reverse should be offered based on the statistics.
To get more analytical, it is necessary to compare set results to particular match odds. Using the odds from Bet365, here are the numbers in terms of set scores, alongside the odds for the favourite. The order of these numbers is 3-0F/3-1F/3-2F/3-0NF/3-1NF/3-2NF/Ret.
1.01 9/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.02 6/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.03 4/1/2/0/0/0/0
1.04 1/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.05 0/1/0/0/0/0/0
1.06 7/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.07 4/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.08 5/2/0/0/0/0/0
1.10 1/3/0/0/0/0/1
1.11 7/2/0/0/0/0/1
1.12 4/1/1/0/1/1/0
1.14 6/2/2/0/0/0/0
1.16 1/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.19 0/1/0/0/0/1/0
1.20 1/1/1/0/0/1/0
1.22 6/2/1/0/1/1/0
1.25 5/1/0/1/0/1/0
1.28 7/1/0/2/0/1/1
1.30 1/3/0/0/0/0/0
1.33 3/2/1/1/1/1/0
1.36 5/3/1/0/3/1/1
1.38 1/0/0/0/0/0/0
1.39 1/1/1/1/0/0/1
1.40 0/0/1/1/0/1/0
1.44 7/1/1/1/2/2/0
1.50 3/3/0/1/1/0/1
1.53 3/2/0/1/1/1/0
1.57 5/5/2/1/0/1/1
1.61 1/2/0/2/1/1/1
1.66 4/2/1/2/0/2/0
1.72 4/3/2/0/1/3/0
1.8+ 0/5/1/4/4/1/3
For this period of matches, there have been no favourites at less than 1.12 that have lost. Three of them have retired. A favourite at 1.01 should be 1.10 or less to win the set in straight sets. A favourite at 1.8+ hasn't won the set 3-0, and in fact, has lost more times than has won. So these are statistics I shall use when betting.
No player ranked greater than 400 has won in this period. There are two of them in the first round of this tournament and they should be avoided.
One of the worlds top 10 loses almost every year in the first round.
Here are my predictions for the first batch of matches - and the reasons for them.
Lleyton HEWITT v Ivo KARLOVIC Lay Karlovic 3-2 @ 7.0
Hewitt is at 1.5s. The stats match the odds for the chances of him winning, and whilst he is not great on clay courts, his record recently is 20-8 whereas the improved Karlovic has lost more than he has won. The Croatian does have a good record against Hewitt, 2-0 in four years. Hewitt has a good return of serve but his own serve will give Karlovic chances. This game is based almost entirely on Karlovic's serve, but it won't go to 3-2 and the stats don't support that either.
Florent SERRA (FRA) v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco WIN @ 1.1
Potentially risky for the Spaniard, but Serra, with a 49% record on clay courts, isn't the most likely French winner in this round. Verdasco's form and multi-surface ability will see him win this match easily. I'm not sure it will be 3-0, but he shouldn't have too many problems.
Marcel GRANOLLERS v Josselin OUANNA (FRA) No bet
Ouanna on the other hand, is a potentially dangerous player against another Spaniard who has less form and definitely is superior on hard courts. Ouanna is reasonably ranked to pull a surprise victory here and with Granollers at 1.57, the bookies are hesitant about his chances. My recommendation would not the Ouanna win however. He has lost all of his matches on clay on the ATP tour in the last four years. No bet.
Denis GREMELMAYR v Andrey GOLUBEV Gremelmayr WIN @ 2.1
Here is a match in which the favourite is incorrectly priced. Golubev hasn't played a competitive match on clay at this level, Gremelmayr has a 12-10 record. There are two potential bets here, you could lay the 3-0 Gremelmayr, risky, but most likely successful. But I would opt for the win for Gremelmayr @ 2.1.
Dudi SELA v Jean Rene LISNARD (FRA) Sela WIN @ 2.26
Jean Rene Lisnard is French but that doesn't make him a world beater. Dudi Sela has enough ability to see of this French pretender. In fact, with Lisnard at 1.83, I think the only option in this match is a Sela win @ 2.26.
Alexandre SIDORENKO (FRA) v Marat SAFIN Safin WIN @ 1.23
Marat Safin has a reasonable record on clay and against this wild-card he should win. May not be the easiest win, but I would bet on him. Safin to win at 1.22.
Jan HERNYCH v Marin CILIC Cilic WIN @ 1.2
Neither of these players has a great clay court record, but Cilic is the form player and that is reflected in his odds. I'm not sure this will be straight sets, but the recommendation is simple. Cilic to win @ 1.2.
Yen-Hsun LU v Mathieu MONTCOURT (FRA) Lay 3-2 LU @ 9.0
An almost impossible match to call. Lu, who has injury problems, the better player against an opponent who elsewhere he may beat easily. The only option here is to use the stats cautiously with a minor lay of 3-2 Lu.
Peter POLANSKY v Philipp PETZSCHNER Lay Polansky 3-0 @ 5.1
Odds on this match have switched. Petzschner was the bookie's favourite. Petzschner is a player who pulls off wins when you least expect him to. Today he has a chance to win against a player he should beat easily and I doubt it will be that simple. In fact he may lose. This is a lay of Polansky 3-0 at 5.1.
Wayne ODESNIK v Gilles SIMON (FRA) Simon WIN @ 1.2
Yet another 1.2 shot, but this time for a French player who is in form. Bookies continue to be undecided on Simon, and on this occasion perhaps correctly. Odesnik has a 10-4 record on clay in four years, albeit mostly on American clay. He is 3-2 on European clay courts however. Simon has a 50-30 record on clay, so added to his nationality, this is likely to stand him in a good position to win the match. An obvious bet. Simon to win @ 1.2.
Radek STEPANEK v Gaston GAUDIO No bet
With Gaudio's record at this tournament, Stepanek becomes a doubt, particularly at this odds. But Gaudio's record has recently been atrocious and Stepanek should surely be able to defeat him. Most factors are in Stepanek's favour, but I don't like the odds here. I would have placed him at 1.3s at least. This is a no bet.
Nicolas ALMAGRO v Agustin CALLERI Lay Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0
Almagro is apparently the best clay courter in the world other than Nadal. I heard that before on a news channel. Personally I would have chosen Federer but maybe his stats would stand up to that. 94-51. Federer, without checking is something like 69-13. So maybe that news channel need to do some more research. Almagro should outplay Calleri here, the Argentine has injury concerns and I can't see anything but a win for Almagro. 3-0 or 3-1 but certainly not 3-2 and so a lay of Almagro 3-2 @ 7.0 is the bet.
Andy MURRAY v Juan Ignacio CHELA Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0
Not the ideal match for Murray against someone with ability on clay. Murray is potentially the biggest risk of the world's top ten in this round. 1.13 puts him just outside the safe zone and so the only option is to look at the set betting. Lay Chela 3-0 @ 27.0.
Ernests GULBIS v Sam QUERREY Querrey WIN @2.1
Sam Querrey has been showing form on clay, which is unusual for a power-serving American. Gulbis has been in atrocious form, and while he may be defending ranking points from a successful tournament last year, his odds at 1.83 are reasonable. I am not sure who will win this, but as with most 1.8+ favourites, I will select their opponent. Querrey to win @ 2.1.
Frederico GIL v David FERRER Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0
Strangely, Ferrer is not in the safe zone either. The bookies are showing signs that they rate Gil quite highly. He's fine, but he's not a world beater and I think Ferrer will win. But as with other players at these odds he's outside of the safe zone and can't be risked. So, the set betting again. Lay Gil 3-1 @ 17.0.
Daniel BRANDS v Robert KENDRICK Lay Brands 3-2 @ 7.0
Not really the easiest match to predict based on player knowledge. Kendrick of course is reliant on his serve and I think that will fail him on this occasion. Brands is correctly priced at 1.5, the odds give nothing away compared to the stats, so my bet is a lay of Brands 3-2 @ 7.0.
Note these are my recommended bets. I generally bet in-play using stats, so I will post all of my betting results on here for each day to show the profit I have made.
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