Sunday 31 May 2009

French Open 4th Round, Sunday

The French Open 4th round is an easy round to bet on. There are very few victories for the non-favourites (1 in every 4.5 matches) and when they do win it isn't usually easy. In fact, in four years, no non-favourites have won 3-0.

I generally use odds from 5 different bookmakers - and have done since the 3rd round of the tournament this year. I take the odds from those, divide by 5 and give accurate odds. Using betting exchanges you would expect those odds to increase a little, less so for the strong favourites.

Here are my bets for the 4th round.

Rafael NADAL v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31
I can see potential in Soderling's game to beat most players, but not Rafael Nadal on clay. There is one winner here and it will be an easy win for the Spaniard.

Fernando GONZALEZ v Victor HANESCU Gonzalez to win 3-0 @ 2.10
Gonzalez has more than enough energy and skill to defeat Hanescu easily. I think Hanescu has some form going into this, but it won't be nearly enough to prevent an easy win for Gonzalez.

Andy MURRAY v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10
Murray has the game to defeat Cilic easily, and while I may have decided he won't win 3-0 in previous matches this is probably going to be one of those.

Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco to win 3-0 @ 4.0
Very good odds on the easy win for Verdasco and his form is improving throughout the tournament. Davydenko has a chance here, but I think that at this price the 3-0 to Verdasco is not worth avoiding.

There is another plan available for all of these matches and it is this -

Back all non-favourites at match odds of 1.11+ to win 3-2. This would be an ideal counterbet for the 3-0 predictions above. You'll get some great odds e.g. Hanescu @ 19.5. And this is why - of the non-favourites that have won in this round in four years (and there have been just 6 of them in completed matches) four of them have won 3-2.