Monday 25 May 2009

French Open 1st Round, Monday

Here are my predictions, using stats of course, for the French Open first round matches today. I am cautious of player injuries today.

Nicolas KIEFER v Ilia BOZOLJAC Lay Bozoljac 3-2 @ 11.0
Nicolas Kiefer's fitness cannot be relied on and while I think he will win this match, and the stats support that, I have to resort to set betting on this. The stats suggest Bozoljac, if he wins, will not win 3-2 and therefore I opt for a lay of 3-2 at 11.0

Santiago GIRALDO v Denis ISTOMIN No bet
Giraldo is the better clay court player but the odds don't give anything away and Istomin is too unpredictable to take anything but a guess at this. A match to be avoided.

Victor HANESCU v Steve DARCIS Lay Darcis 3-0 @ 14.0
Darcis is unlikely to be able to compete with an experienced player like Hanescu, but again I am not sure either player is in the best shape. Set betting again and a lay of Darcis 3-0 at 14.0

Mikhail YOUZHNY v Gilles MULLER No bet
Youzhny isn't a player to put a lot of money on, even though he is likely to dominate Muller, who is majorly reliant on his serve, so I would not advise betting on this match.

Potito STARACE v Mischa ZVEREV Starace WIN @ 2.0
One of my choices of the day. Can't really see how Zverev is the favourite in this match and Starace has a good clay court record. As the slight non-favourite I would have to choose the Italian to win this match. Starace to win @ 2.0.

Stanislas WAWRINKA v Nicolas DEVILDER Wawrinka WIN @ 1.07
Wawrinka is allegedly one of the form players entering this Grand Slam. I am not so convinced and I think his victory over Federer swayed people a little too much. I have seen too many occasions when he has lost what seemed to be heading for an easy victory. But then today his opponent is Devilder, who seems only capable of performing in South America and and whilst he may be French, he is unlikely to trouble the Swiss player today. Wawrinka to win @ 1.07.

Nicolas MASSU v Daniel KOELLERER No bet
The odds would suggest Massu, but his form is so poor that combined with Koellerer's tenacity and improvement this year, this match is definitely not one to bet on.

Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Stefan KOUBEK Davydenko win @ 1.11
Davydenko's odds have dropped and as such make him a player I would now construe as within the safe zone. He should win this. I don't think Koubek has either the ability or energy to match Davydenko on these courts. A word of caution though, Davydenko is one of the most frequent retirers on the tour and it may be worth laying off if he takes a set lead. I don't think he'll retire today but with him, you never know. Davydenko to win @ 1.11.

Robin SODERLING v Kevin KIM Soderling win @ 1.05
Yet another player with a dodgy fitness history, if he is not injured, Soderling will win against this American pretender, most probably 3-0. Soderling to win @ 1.05.

Fernando GONZALEZ v Jiri VANEK Gonzalez win @ 1.05
Whilst Vanek may be capable in the minor tournaments on clay, against a top player such as Gonzalez on this stage, I think he may struggle. No guarantee of 3-0 and so I opt for Gonzalez to win @ 1.05.

Franco FERREIRO v Feliciano LOPEZ No bet
Franco Ferreiro wouldn't win against many opponents, but someone like Lopez whose game can plummet without his serve should not be recommended. No bet on this.

Rafael NADAL v Marcos DANIEL Nadal win @ 1.01
Unsure of this match. Set betting that is, Nadal 3-0 should be bigger than 1.1, despite his record at this tournament. Nadal's form on clay this year has not been as convincing as in previous years coming into this tournament. He will win at 1.01.

Rui MACHADO v Kristof VLIEGEN Vliegen win @ 2.16
Machado is a potential threat on this surface, but I think Vliegen will have the quality to win this. The stats suggest he is worth a bet at 2.16

Diego JUNQUEIRA v Paul CAPDEVILLE Junqueira WIN @ 2.02
Capdeville is one of the least reliable players on the tour. This match is unlikely to be an easy win for either player, but Capdeville is at risk here. Junqueira to win at 2.02.

Igor KUNITSYN v Teimuraz GABASHVILI Gabashvili WIN @ 2.16
Kunitsyn is one of those players who begins matches well, then, when he is about to win, doesn't. Gabashvili is a prominent player when outside the main events and I feel that, without any other influences, this match could be won by him. Gabashvili @ 2.16.

Janko TIPSAREVIC v Albert MONTANES Tipsarevic WIN @ 2.16
Tipsarevic has shown form immediately before the start of this tournament and that has to be a concern for the improved Montanes. The stats suggest Tipsarevic @ 2.16.

Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Laurent RECOUDERC No bet
Mathieu is unconvincing and can make any match turn into a horror show. Recouderc will be up for this match, although I am unconvinced by his ability. Frenchman + Frenchman = no bet.

Jose ACASUSO v Santiago VENTURA No bet
Another no bet for this match, Ventura has ability but again his successes come in patches, and there is no guarantee he is heading into one at the moment. Acasuso is not prolific on clay either. The stats are not showing anything for this. No bet.

Alberto MARTIN v Roger FEDERER Federer 3-0 @ 1.23
Presumably Martin's clay court pedigree has boosted Federer's set betting odds to ridiculous proportions. Unfortunately for him, his pedigree is masked by his lack of fitness and against Federer this seems an easy 3-0 win for the Swiss player. Federer to win 3-0 at 1.23.

Bjorn PHAU v Jeremy CHARDY No bet
Chardy has been out of form, and whilst he may have had good spells last year, and he is French, this tournament could be poor for him in comparison to last year. The odds don't shout Chardy win, even though Phau seems unlikely. No bet.

Guillarme RUFIN v Eduardo SCHWANK Schwank WIN @ 1.17
Not convinced by the chances of outside Rufin here, and I feel he is one to avoid. Last year Schwank entered this tournament on the back of an excellent run, this year less so. He should win however at 1.17.

Jurgen MELZER v Sergio ROITMAN Lay Roitman 3-0 @ 17.0
Not convinced by Melzer's fitness or clay court ability and Roitman is a dangerous player. He could win this, but I doubt it will be 3-0 and so a lay of that is the choice.

Robby GINEPRI v Pablo ANDUJAR Andujar WIN @ 2.1
Andujar wouldn't be the first player I would opt for to win at these odds, but against Ginepri, who is generally awful outside the USA, the odds and stats say Andujar at 2.1.

Simone BOLELLI v Tomas BERDYCH No bet
Berdych has the clay court ability, but seems unable to deliver when it counts and Bolelli has a chance of winning this today. No bet.

Tomas BELLUCCI v Martin VASSALLO-ARGUELLO Bellucci WIN @ 2.12
Bellucci should have a good chance against Vassallo-Arguello, who seems incapable of winning easily and isn't always focused on his tennis. Bellucci has the opportunity to do well at this tournament and as the non-favourite he must be chosen to take that chance. Bellucci to win at 2.12.

Fabio FOGNINI v Igor ANDREEV No bet
The stats say a lay of Andreev but his odds are borderline between 1.5 and 1.6 and as such they don't state the lay strongly enough. Fognini is temperamental to say the least and I cannot suggest a bet against Andreev on these courts at these odds. No bet.

Oscar HERNANDEZ v Ivo MINAR Hernandez WIN @ 1.44
Hernandez should have the ability to win this against Minar. Hernandez' form has been improved, Minar has a minor threat here, but I think Hernandez should win 3-0 or 3-1. Hernandez win at 1.44.

Andy RODDICK v Romain JOUAN Roddick WIN @ 1.05
Andy Roddick, who would bet on him at the French Open. Numerous early round defeats, a dislike for clay-courts, and yet today, I am betting on him. Jouan can't outsee Roddick over 5 sets, and the odds state Roddick easy win. I am not sure how easy but he should win at 1.05.