Tuesday 26 May 2009

French Open 1st Round, Tuesday

Here are my predictions for Tuesday's first round matches, based on statistics.

Victor CRIVOI v Simon GREUL No bet
Neither player strikes me as an excellent clay court player, Crivoi has some form coming into this tournament, but the stats say that with these odds, no bet is the choice.
Ivan NAVARRO v Andreas BECK Lay Navarro 3-1 @ 14.0
Hard to decide between these two, but set betting stats suggest Navarro is unlikely to win 3-1 against Beck, who has seen some form and should provide a good contest.
Juan Martin Del Potro v Michael LLODRA Del Potro WIN @ 1.06
Many are predicting that Llodra, after his sturdy efforts last year, could pull off a surprise result here. I don't think so. Del Potro is in form and is in the safe zone. Injury should be his main concern.
Marc GICQUEL v Rainer SCHUETTLER No bet
Gicquel would be my French pick of the day, but his odds are not supported by the stats. No bet.
Viktor TROICKI v Lukasz KUBOT No bet
Another no bet here, Kubot can pull off surprise results and Troicki isn't the most predictable player.
Marcos BAGHDATIS v Juan MONACO Baghdatis WIN @ 5.1
Baghdatis has plummeted down the rankings and Monaco has some form, but he is possibly overrated with these odds and Baghdatis won't go out of this tournament easily. I think this could be either way but the stats and odds suggest that along with other bets, Baghdatis is a good price here. Baghdatis to win.
Bobby REYNOLDS v Gael MONFILS Monfils WIN @ 1.17
Fantastic price for Monfils. Reynolds is an out of form player whose only chance here would be if he served excellently, and that is far from probable. Monfils to win.
Sergiy STAKHOVSKY v Brian DABUL No bet
Stakhovsky and Dabul are not two players you would want to predict a result on when the stats are not there to give any room for analysis. Dabul is probably the better player, but not worth a bet.
Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER v Bernard TOMIC Kohlschreiber WIN @ 1.07
Kohlschreiber has played himself into form and his odds suggest he should win this easily.
Evgeny KOROLEV v Daniel GIMENO-TRAVER No bet
I think Korolev will probably win this, but he can play some really poor matches and can't be guaranteed. I cannot advise a bet on this match.
Juan Carlos FERRERO v Ivan LJUBICIC Ferrero WIN @ 2.3
Ferrero is playing a Ljubicic who has improved on clay courts, but with these odds and the stats to back them up, Ferrero to win is the choice.
Nicolas LAPENTTI v Novak DJOKOVIC Djokovic WIN @ 1.03
Novak Djokovic has the potential to go far at this tournament, and it's extremely unlikely he will slip up in the first round. Lapentti may have his card so it could possibly be tricky but I suspect Djokovic will win this eventually.
Tommy ROBREDO v Adrian MANNARINO Robredo WIN @ 1.06
Yet another match that has been touted as a potential surprise result. I don't think so. Robredo has the nouse to win this easily and I think he will. Robredo to win.
Maximo GONZALEZ v Mardy FISH No bet
A no bet here, I think Fish should not be at the odds he is, but with those come stats that don't allow a bet on this.
Guillermo GARCIA-LOPEZ v Andreas SEPPI Seppi WIN @ 1.57
This is a risky bet for me. Andreas Seppi had some form recently but so does his opponent. Over a five set match I have to go for Seppi here. He will return more of Garcia-Lopez's serves than a lot of players, and added to the fact that a lot of 1.5s have lost this week, I am selecting Seppi to break that trend and win here.
Dmitri TURSUNOV v Arnaud CLEMENT No bet
A lot will depend on Tursunov's ability to avoid unforced errors in this match, if he does that he could provide a challenge. I don't think he will though, and I suspect Clement should win this. No bet though, too unpredictable.
Julien BENNETEAU v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Benneteau WIN @ 3.0
Julien Benneteau could provide the shock result today. Tsonga is not priced at these odds because of his clay court form and Benneteau comes into the tournament in a bit of form. One top ten player is almost always defeated in the first round, and my prediction is that it will be Tsonga. Benneteau to win.
Andrei PAVEL v Tommy HAAS Haas WIN @ 1.08
Andrei Pavel is not a player to be underestimated, particularly against a Tommy Haas whose A game is becoming more fleeting by the tournament. However, Haas should win this, although I wouldn't put money on the easy victory. Haas to win.
Fabrice SANTORO v Christophe ROCHUS Rochus WIN @ 2.22
Normally I would avoid betting against Santoro, but Rochus has the game to counteract him. The stats suggest a bet on Rochus is advisable.
James BLAKE v Leonardo MAYER Mayer WIN @ 4.6
Blake can play on clay but he is up against an improving player here. As with most French Opens one or two players make their name with a good tournament here and Mayer could be one of those this year. Or he could lose 3-0. But with these odds he is worth a shot. Mayer to win.