French Open 3rd Round matches, Friday

These are the predictions for Friday's 3rd round matches. I have put a lot of detail into the analysis for this round as it is the round that I was most successful with last year. Note with any analysis of player stats mentioned in this blog it refers to a period from now back to 2005.

Rafael NADAL v Lleyton HEWITT Nadal win @ 1.02
At first glance Hewitt could seem like a player who is not a natural on clay courts, but his record is actually quite good. Additionally, he would seem to have a good record against Nadal. In fact, he does, but when you look in more detail at that record it doesn't bode well for Hewitt. His only earned victory in four years was back in 2005 in the Australian Open and even that was a gruelling 3-2. In that match Hewitt was ranked 3rd in the ATP rankings and Nadal 56th. All of their other matches since then have been with Nadal ranked 2nd, and with the exception of a Nadal retirement in a match at Queens in which Nadal was beginning to dominate, the Spaniard has a good record against Hewitt - and an unbeaten record on clay. Nadal's clay court record against Hewitt is 3-0, and although Hewitt gave Nadal a tough match last year and won a set against him in the French Open in 2006, this is not the Hewitt of those matches and it is obvious why Nadal is such a short price. He will win, and it may be in straight sets. 1.3 is a good price for the straight sets. In four years, there have been four players starting a third round match at Roland Garros at 1.02 or less. Every one of those players won 3-0. Not convincing enough though, when you consider that 2 players at 1.03 did not win by that score. This has to be a bet on the Nadal match win.

Fernando GONZALEZ v Josselin OUANNA Gonzalez to win @ 1.08
Gonzalez is not an excellent clay court player, but he does win nearly three times the number of matches he loses, and Ouanna, despite his previous exploits at this year's tournament, has met his match here. Gonzalez has the perfect game to beat Ouanna. The straight sets win is at 1.6s, a little risky with a Frenchman involved and not supported by the stats, so the match bet for Gonzalez is the choice.

Andy MURRAY v Janko TIPSAREVIC Tipsarevic to win @ 7.0
These players share their previous matches with two victories each. None of those were on clay, however, Tipsarevic has form coming into this tournament, he has more French Open attempts under his belt and the odds on him in this match, considering that, are quite attractive. Favourites between 1.1 and 1.19 in this round have a 7-3 record and I wouldn't be surprised if Tipsarevic pulls off the win here. I am opting for the win.

Fernando VERDASCO v Nicolas ALMAGRO Almagro to win @ 7.8
The odds are way too risky on Verdasco here. Yes, he's got the form but Almagro can destroy opponents on clay when he has his game going. Almagro was a quarter-finalist here last year and should not be underestimated. On Verdasco's side are the previous matches, he leads 2-0, both on clay, both straight sets wins. My theory is that if Verdasco doesn't win this in three sets, Almagro could knock him out of this tournament. The stats suggest that a good choice here would be a lay of Verdasco 3-2. But I'm on the win for the underdog.

Radek STEPANEK v Marin CILIC Stepanek to win @ 2.26
Cilic is the favourite here, but the odds should be approached with some caution. Stepanek has a previous win against Cilic on clay, in straight sets. He has a superior clay court record. And he has a reasonably good French Open record. Stepanek to win.

Gilles SIMON v Victor HANESCU Hanescu to win @ 3.0
Hanescu is another former quarter-finalist who is possibly underestimated in this match. This is either a lay of Simon 3-0 or a straight bet on Hanescu. This has the signs of a 5 set match.

Robin SODERLING v David FERRER Soderling to win @ 2.94
Soderling has the potential to beat any player, but his temperament often lets him down. It could easily do against the frustrating return of serve of David Ferrer, but the conditions today and the stats suggest Soderling has an excellent chance of a win here.

Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Stanislas WAWRINKA Davydenko 3-0 @ 5.2
Wawrinka is capable of causing the Russian problems here, but whether he will play to his strengths is another matter.


Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer

Will they play again in the final, or will one of the seven French players get through to challenge them?