Tuesday 2 June 2009

French Open Quarter-Finals, Tuesday

This is not an easy round to predict. There are a number of reasons for this. The lack of clear favourites in this round is unusual. These are the odds of the winners in this round over a period of four years.

1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.10
1.10
1.11
1.30
1.56
1.60
1.64
2.16
2.28
4.18

As you can see, there are very few non-favourites winning their matches, but there are many at less than 1.1.

So for this round, an analysis of the player statistics becomes more important. Additionally, set betting seems the ideal choice.

Robin SODERLING v Nikolay DAVYDENKO No bet
Soderling and Davydenko is a very tough match to bet on. Considering that Davydenko is a 1.5s favourite and the player who is a real danger in this tournament I would think he should win this match. His return of serve should be an important factor in obliterating Soderling's power hitting. But there is a strong previous encounter favouritism for Soderling, who has beaten Davydenko convincingly on previous occasions. Davydenko has, however, a far better clay court record - and an impressive French Open record. He has been knocked out of the French Open by Federer, Nalbandian, Ljubicic and Puerta in four years. He has got to the semi-finals twice in that period. Soderling has been knocked out by Lee, Montanes, Nadal and Benneteau. He has never exceeded the third round. This is a toss of a coin. No bet.

Andy MURRAY v Fernando GONZALEZ Lay Gonzalez 3-0 @ 8.4
This is another close match which isn't easy to select a winner from. Gonzalez' form on these courts is good, but overrated. Murray's is improving but not convincing. Gonzalez will have to play a great game today to beat Murray and considering the way he has played in the tournament against lesser opponents, he should have the energy and ability to do that. I can't, however, see him winning it 3-0.