Three defeats and and one win, and a profit.
WON Andy RODDICK v Gael MONFILS Monfils to win 3-0 @ 5.0 (+40)
LOST Roger FEDERER v Tommy HAAS Federer to win 3-0 @ 1.59 (-10)
LOST Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Del Potro to win 3-0 @ 3.75 (-10)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Robredo to win 3-0 @ 5.7 (-10)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = 10.00
Monday, 1 June 2009
French Open 4th Round, Monday
Here are my predictions for Monday's matches.
Roger FEDERER v Tommy HAAS Federer to win 3-0 @ 1.59
Federer has the ability to beat Haas, who may have previously caused him problems but is unlikely to today.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Del Potro to win 3-0 @ 3.75
Del Potro should knock Tsonga out this competition, the Frenchman doesn't have the experience on these courts to beat Del Potro.
Tommy ROBREDO v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Robredo to win 3-0 @ 5.7
Robredo is underestimated here and could be in for a big tournament. Too much emphasis on Kohlschreiber's elimination of Djokovic and not enough on the matches of Robredo in these odds.
Andy RODDICK v Gael MONFILS Monfils to win 3-0 @ 5.0
Roddick is dangerous but I suspect that Monfils will knock him around the court far too much for him to win this.
Roger FEDERER v Tommy HAAS Federer to win 3-0 @ 1.59
Federer has the ability to beat Haas, who may have previously caused him problems but is unlikely to today.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Del Potro to win 3-0 @ 3.75
Del Potro should knock Tsonga out this competition, the Frenchman doesn't have the experience on these courts to beat Del Potro.
Tommy ROBREDO v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Robredo to win 3-0 @ 5.7
Robredo is underestimated here and could be in for a big tournament. Too much emphasis on Kohlschreiber's elimination of Djokovic and not enough on the matches of Robredo in these odds.
Andy RODDICK v Gael MONFILS Monfils to win 3-0 @ 5.0
Roddick is dangerous but I suspect that Monfils will knock him around the court far too much for him to win this.
French Open 4th Round results, Sunday
WON Fernando GONZALEZ v Victor HANESCU G'lez to win 3-0 @ 2.10 (+11)
LOST Rafael Nadal v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31 (-10)
WON Andy Murray v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10 (+21)
LOST Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verd'co to win 3-0 @ 4.0 (-10)
LOST Rafael Nadal v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31 (-10)
WON Andy Murray v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10 (+21)
LOST Nicolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verd'co to win 3-0 @ 4.0 (-10)
Total profit on £10 stake on each bet = 12.00
Sunday, 31 May 2009
French Open 4th Round, Sunday
The French Open 4th round is an easy round to bet on. There are very few victories for the non-favourites (1 in every 4.5 matches) and when they do win it isn't usually easy. In fact, in four years, no non-favourites have won 3-0.
I generally use odds from 5 different bookmakers - and have done since the 3rd round of the tournament this year. I take the odds from those, divide by 5 and give accurate odds. Using betting exchanges you would expect those odds to increase a little, less so for the strong favourites.
Here are my bets for the 4th round.
Rafael NADAL v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31
I can see potential in Soderling's game to beat most players, but not Rafael Nadal on clay. There is one winner here and it will be an easy win for the Spaniard.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Victor HANESCU Gonzalez to win 3-0 @ 2.10
Gonzalez has more than enough energy and skill to defeat Hanescu easily. I think Hanescu has some form going into this, but it won't be nearly enough to prevent an easy win for Gonzalez.
Andy MURRAY v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10
Murray has the game to defeat Cilic easily, and while I may have decided he won't win 3-0 in previous matches this is probably going to be one of those.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco to win 3-0 @ 4.0
Very good odds on the easy win for Verdasco and his form is improving throughout the tournament. Davydenko has a chance here, but I think that at this price the 3-0 to Verdasco is not worth avoiding.
There is another plan available for all of these matches and it is this -
Back all non-favourites at match odds of 1.11+ to win 3-2. This would be an ideal counterbet for the 3-0 predictions above. You'll get some great odds e.g. Hanescu @ 19.5. And this is why - of the non-favourites that have won in this round in four years (and there have been just 6 of them in completed matches) four of them have won 3-2.
I generally use odds from 5 different bookmakers - and have done since the 3rd round of the tournament this year. I take the odds from those, divide by 5 and give accurate odds. Using betting exchanges you would expect those odds to increase a little, less so for the strong favourites.
Here are my bets for the 4th round.
Rafael NADAL v Robin SODERLING Nadal to win 3-0 @ 1.31
I can see potential in Soderling's game to beat most players, but not Rafael Nadal on clay. There is one winner here and it will be an easy win for the Spaniard.
Fernando GONZALEZ v Victor HANESCU Gonzalez to win 3-0 @ 2.10
Gonzalez has more than enough energy and skill to defeat Hanescu easily. I think Hanescu has some form going into this, but it won't be nearly enough to prevent an easy win for Gonzalez.
Andy MURRAY v Marin CILIC Murray to win 3-0 @ 3.10
Murray has the game to defeat Cilic easily, and while I may have decided he won't win 3-0 in previous matches this is probably going to be one of those.
Nikolay DAVYDENKO v Fernando VERDASCO Verdasco to win 3-0 @ 4.0
Very good odds on the easy win for Verdasco and his form is improving throughout the tournament. Davydenko has a chance here, but I think that at this price the 3-0 to Verdasco is not worth avoiding.
There is another plan available for all of these matches and it is this -
Back all non-favourites at match odds of 1.11+ to win 3-2. This would be an ideal counterbet for the 3-0 predictions above. You'll get some great odds e.g. Hanescu @ 19.5. And this is why - of the non-favourites that have won in this round in four years (and there have been just 6 of them in completed matches) four of them have won 3-2.
Saturday bet results
Cricket was an easy bet yesterday.
WON Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN in-play @ 1.26 (+2.6)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = +2.6
No profit for the tennis on Saturday, but continuing in profit for the tournament.
WON Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6 (+3.85)
LOST Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0 (-10)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7 (-10)
LOST Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6 (-10)
WON Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92 (+5.21)
WON MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -29.14
WON Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN in-play @ 1.26 (+2.6)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = +2.6
No profit for the tennis on Saturday, but continuing in profit for the tournament.
WON Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6 (+3.85)
LOST Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0 (-10)
LOST Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7 (-10)
LOST Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6 (-10)
WON Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1 (+1)
LOST Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06 (-10)
WON Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92 (+5.21)
WON MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08 (+0.8)
Total profit on a stake of £10 on each bet = -29.14
Saturday, 30 May 2009
T20 Cricket, Saturday
The stats show an effective bet on the cricket this evening.
Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN @ 1.26 in-play
Glamorgan 129/8 off 20 overs.
At these odds, considering the stats show that in English T20 cricket, there is a 1 in 12 chance of a score of 129 being beaten, Warwickshire to win is a superb bet.
Glamorgan v Warwickshire Warwickshire WIN @ 1.26 in-play
Glamorgan 129/8 off 20 overs.
At these odds, considering the stats show that in English T20 cricket, there is a 1 in 12 chance of a score of 129 being beaten, Warwickshire to win is a superb bet.
French Open 3rd Round matches, Saturday
Can I make a profit on Saturday?
Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6
Chardy is at odds which would suggest he has a good chance of winning this, particularly when supported by the stats, but Haas has the experience and I can't see quarter-finals full of Frenchmen either. Chardy has his toughest match yet and I suspect if he does win it won't be easy.
Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0
Roddick's poor record at Roland Garros is likely to return to hit him today. He's had reasonably easy wins so far against limited opponents. Gicquel is far from that, and is a superb price to defeat Roddick. This price cannot be bet against. Gicquel to win @ 5.0.
Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7
Maximo Gonzalez is definitely becoming a dark horse in this tournament, and indeed it is a tournament in which unheralded South American players have made the big time. Yet he is against Robredo who has won his matches easily so far, and hence this bet should be decided on with some caution. The stats suggest one or two favourites between 1.11 and 1.29 should lose in this round and none have yet. Gonzalez to win @ 4.7.
Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6
Another player whose odds are wrongly priced is Tsonga. Look at his clay court form against that of Rochus and you'll see they are almost equally matched. Rochus has beaten some great players this week and Tsonga has just edged his way through to this stage. Rochus to win.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1
Del Potro is the riskiest favourite of the day, but I shall back him to win this. He has a winning record against Andreev and is in such form that a stuttering Andreev won't have many chances against him. It may even be 3-0, but a Del Potro win is on the cards.
Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06
Djokovic is in the safe zone and Kohlschreiber will not have any chance to win this. Added to the fact that his serve is simply not good enough against a player like Djokovic, he is likely to be outrallied too. However, the warm conditions will not favour Djokovic and he may need to win quickly.
Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92
Melzer would be a potential winner of this if it wasn't for Monfil's form which going into this match has been excellent. He seems to take to this tournament reasonably easily and has done so again this year. Melzer too has played great tennis to get to this stage and I am sure he will win at least a set in this match.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08
Roger Federer shouldn't have much trouble against Mathieu here. The French player has been unconvincing in his previous matches, and Federer wasn't at his best previously either. But Federer plays himself into tournaments, and Mathieu plays himself out of them. Federer to win this easily.
Tommy HAAS v Jeremy CHARDY Lay Chardy 3-0 @ 3.6
Chardy is at odds which would suggest he has a good chance of winning this, particularly when supported by the stats, but Haas has the experience and I can't see quarter-finals full of Frenchmen either. Chardy has his toughest match yet and I suspect if he does win it won't be easy.
Andy RODDICK v Marc GICQUEL Gicquel WIN @ 5.0
Roddick's poor record at Roland Garros is likely to return to hit him today. He's had reasonably easy wins so far against limited opponents. Gicquel is far from that, and is a superb price to defeat Roddick. This price cannot be bet against. Gicquel to win @ 5.0.
Tommy ROBREDO v Maximo GONZALEZ Gonzalez WIN @ 4.7
Maximo Gonzalez is definitely becoming a dark horse in this tournament, and indeed it is a tournament in which unheralded South American players have made the big time. Yet he is against Robredo who has won his matches easily so far, and hence this bet should be decided on with some caution. The stats suggest one or two favourites between 1.11 and 1.29 should lose in this round and none have yet. Gonzalez to win @ 4.7.
Christophe ROCHUS v Jo-Wilfried TSONGA Rochus WIN @ 8.6
Another player whose odds are wrongly priced is Tsonga. Look at his clay court form against that of Rochus and you'll see they are almost equally matched. Rochus has beaten some great players this week and Tsonga has just edged his way through to this stage. Rochus to win.
Juan Martin DEL POTRO v Igor ANDREEV Del Potro WIN @ 1.1
Del Potro is the riskiest favourite of the day, but I shall back him to win this. He has a winning record against Andreev and is in such form that a stuttering Andreev won't have many chances against him. It may even be 3-0, but a Del Potro win is on the cards.
Novak DJOKOVIC v Philipp KOHLSCHREIBER Djokovic WIN @ 1.06
Djokovic is in the safe zone and Kohlschreiber will not have any chance to win this. Added to the fact that his serve is simply not good enough against a player like Djokovic, he is likely to be outrallied too. However, the warm conditions will not favour Djokovic and he may need to win quickly.
Jurgen MELZER v Gael MONFILS Lay Monfils 3-0 @ 2.92
Melzer would be a potential winner of this if it wasn't for Monfil's form which going into this match has been excellent. He seems to take to this tournament reasonably easily and has done so again this year. Melzer too has played great tennis to get to this stage and I am sure he will win at least a set in this match.
Paul-Henri MATHIEU v Roger FEDERER Federer WIN @ 1.08
Roger Federer shouldn't have much trouble against Mathieu here. The French player has been unconvincing in his previous matches, and Federer wasn't at his best previously either. But Federer plays himself into tournaments, and Mathieu plays himself out of them. Federer to win this easily.
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